RUSSIA. Travel analyst ForwardKeys has revealed new research indicating how Russian outbound tourism – already severely handicapped by pandemic travel restrictions – has fallen because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
In the week before the outbreak of war in February, outbound international air tickets from Russia stood at 42% of pre-pandemic levels. In the week after the invasion (week commencing 25 February), issued air tickets fell to 19%.
Since then, flight bookings have sunk deeper to hover at around 15% of pre-pandemic levels.
Due to war-related sanctions on civil aviation, Russians cannot book flights to many of their favourite destinations in the West. Instead, they are booking trips to the Middle East and Asia.
“The war with Ukraine, and the consequent sanctions on flying, have effectively caused Russia’s outbound tourism market to dry up” – ForwardKeys Vice President Insights Olivier Ponti
An analysis of flight bookings made between 24 February, the start of the invasion, and 27 April reveals that the top five destinations for travel between May and August, in order of resilience, are Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Kyrgyzstan, Turkey and the UAE.
Bookings to Sri Lanka are +85% ahead of pre-pandemic levels, to the Maldives down -1%, Kyrgyzstan -11%, Turkey -36% and UAE -49%.
ForwardKeys noted that Sri Lanka’s position at the head of the list is “not a true reflection of the island’s attractiveness as a destination”. Instead, it is due to comparisons with the low travel base in the pre-pandemic benchmark year of 2019, when many potential visitors stayed away following terrorist bombings in the country.
Further analysis of the recent tickets booked to Turkey and the UAE suggests that a large proportion are affluent Russians going on holiday. The number of seats sold in premium cabins has tripled, compared to 2019; the average trip duration for premium travellers is 12 nights in Turkey and seven nights in the UAE.
Changes to flight schedules, following Russian hostilities in Ukraine, include:
- 24 February: Air space in southern Russia was closed and Aeroflot was banned from flying to the UK
- 25 February: Russia banned British airlines from its airspace
- 27 February: The EU closed its airspace to Russian planes
- 1 March: The US banned Russian flights from entering its airspace
- 5 March: Russian airlines (Aeroflot, Ural Airlines, Azur Air and Nordwind Airlines and others) suspended international flights
- 25 March: Rosaviatsiya, the Russian Federal Air Transport Agency, extended a ban on flight operations at 11 airports in southern and central parts of Russia
- 25 Mar: Vietnam Airlines suspended regular flights to Russia
- 14 April: AirBaltic stopped flights to Russia but will return to Ukraine as soon as possible
- 22 April: EgyptAir resumed daily direct flights between Cairo and Moscow
ForwardKeys Vice President Insights Olivier Ponti said: “The war with Ukraine, and the consequent sanctions on flying, have effectively caused Russia’s outbound tourism market to dry up.
“Those people who are still flying comprise a small, affluent niche, who are forced to holiday in Asia and the Middle East rather than in Europe, which is their favourite destination in normal times.”
