EUROPE. Travel data analyst ForwardKeys has released new figures showing that international air travel to three countries in the southeast corner of Europe exceeded pre-pandemic (2019) levels in the peak July and August summer months.
Popular holiday destinations Türkiye and Greece both exceeded the international visitor levels for those key months in 2019 by +9% and +2% respectively. Air travel to Albania (a relatively small destination with less than 1% market share of European flight arrivals) was also up by +28%.
No other major European countries recovered to 2019 numbers. Slovenia, just -7% down, Iceland (-8%) and Portugal (-10%) came the closest.
The list of best-performing city destinations was topped by Istanbul, which recorded a +2% increase in international flight arrivals for July and August. It was followed by cities in negative territory, with Athens (-7%), Reykjavik and Porto (both -8%) and Malaga (-13%) the next highest.
ForwardKeys observed that the major factors driving the strong performance of Türkiye include an ongoing decline in the value of the Turkish lira and its openness to the Russian market, from where most flights to Europe have been banned. In the summer of 2019 Russians accounted for 4% of all arrivals to Europe, a number that has dropped dramatically.
“The recovery from the pandemic has continued despite the travel chaos and capacity reductions caused by staff shortages. Right now, forward bookings for leisure travel show a continued recovery in air travel, post-pandemic, and encouragingly business bookings are catching up.” – ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti
Greece, meanwhile, has performed strongly as a destination throughout much of the pandemic by implementing relatively visitor-friendly COVID-19 travel restrictions.
An analysis of origin markets reveals that within Europe, Greece has proven the most resilient, with departures for European destinations in July and August matching 2019 levels. It is followed by Poland (-9%), Spain (-12%), the UK (-13%), Denmark (-14%) and Portugal (-15%). Overall, intra-European departures were -22% down.
Outside of Europe, the top origin country to the continent was the US, just -5% down on 2019. It is followed by Colombia and Israel (both -9%), South Africa (-10%), Mexico (-12%), and Canada and Kuwait (both -13%). Overall, non-European origin markets to Europe were -31% down.
ForwardKeys said that European destinations could have attracted more visitors during the summer months if the aviation industry had been better able to cope with the surge in demand for travel during late spring and early summer.
Had there been no disruption, the travel data analyst estimates that the recovery in intra-European flight bookings would have been five percentage points higher.
ForwardKeys also said that while there is much talk of recession and inflation damaging the prospects of a post-pandemic travel recovery, the trend remains positive.
In July and August, air travel across the whole of Europe was down by -26%. However, the outlook for the next three months shows that as of 31 August, flight bookings were -21% behind the equivalent moment in 2019.
Bookings for international arrivals to Türkiye and Greece for the next three months are +20% and +5% ahead respectively. The next best booked destinations are currently Portugal, -3% behind, Iceland (-7%) and Spain (-15%).
The strongest origin markets are led by the UK, where outbound flight demand for the next three months is just -2% down compared with before the pandemic. The UK is followed by Spain (-3%), the US (-5%), Ireland (-6%)and Germany (-11%).
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “The recovery from the pandemic has continued despite the travel chaos and capacity reductions caused by staff shortages. Right now, forward bookings for leisure travel show a continued recovery in air travel, post-pandemic, and encouragingly business bookings are catching up.
“However, we are still cautious about the outlook because the continued war in Ukraine and consequent impact on energy prices will negatively affect European economies, which will likely dent consumer confidence and corporate demand.”
He added: “That said, there is currently a concentration of flight bookings during the autumn half term peaks and Christmas, which could lead to further flight disruption if the recent recruitment difficulties experienced by the aviation industry persist.”
