UK. Recent terror attacks in the UK are not putting tourists off visiting the country, according to research from analyst ForwardKeys.
Forward bookings for international arrivals in London for July and August are +12% ahead of what they were at the same point last year (as of 17 June). This is a “significantly more positive position than the European average (currently +7.8% ahead of last year)”, ForwardKeys said.
Prior to the London Bridge terror attack on 3 June, bookings for July and August were +16% ahead. ForwardKeys research found that there was no significant wave of cancellations for air travel to the UK following the incident; although there has been a slow-down in new bookings.
Looking at arrivals from the beginning of June and forward bookings for the rest of the month, the analyst said it still expected June to show double digit growth on last year (+11% ahead).
Bookings for international travel to London (which accounts for some 85% of the UK as a destination) had surged +16.5% on last year prior to the Westminster attack on 22 March. Bookings abated somewhat after that incident, as the surge in bookings slowed to +7.3% up on the previous year. After the Manchester bombing on 22 May, enthusiasm for the UK appeared to wane further, ForwardKeys said, as the rate of bookings for London fell slightly (down -3.5% on last year).
“One needs to treat the stall in bookings immediately after London Bridge with caution because it can also be explained by two other factors,” reported ForwardKeys. “5 June was a national holiday (Whit Monday) in most major European countries, when fewer people book flights (that holiday fell a week earlier in 2016). The dramatic impact of the Qatar travel blockade kicked in with a mass wave of cancellations by those flying through Doha on their way to the UK.”
Looking at the UK as a whole, rather than just London, the figures reflect a near-identical trend.
“One needs to bear in mind that even though we have seen something of a slowdown in bookings for the UK in recent weeks, the forward booking situation for July and August remains extremely healthy,” commented ForwardKeys CEO Olivier Jager. “There has been a sustained positive trend in bookings for the UK throughout the year so ForwardKeys remains bullish on the UK’s tourism performance in summer 2017.”
