CHINA. Marketing and digital strategist China Skinny has predicted an “explosive” recovery of Chinese travel from COVID-19 based on the travelling public’s activity following SARS in 2003.
“However, shortly after the end of the epidemic, an explosive rebound happened as Chinese consumers could finally unbottle their long-built-up passion to travel. The whole market quickly recovered as a result.”
She continued: “Similar to the current decline in travel bookings that we are witnessing due to the novel coronavirus, flight and hotel bookings experienced a significant decline during the 2003 SARS outbreak.
“Flight and hotel bookings on Ctrip in 2003 suffered a -33.4% and -25.1% decline respectively over the outbreak, compared to the same period in 2002.”
Shen said a “surprising pattern” emerged as the battle against SARS was gradually won. “What began as a strong recovery in China’s travel industry, turned into a surge in sales. In July 2003, Ctrip flight bookings saw a +200% increase in sales from the same month in 2002, a +82% increase since June 2003, and a +31% increase compared to the month right before the outbreak,” she added.
This recovery continued in the October 2003 Golden Week, the first major national holiday after SARS. In this period, flights increased +200% year-on-year. Similarly, the 2004 Chinese New Year saw travel surge +201% compared to the month before the outbreak in early 2003.
Shen continued: “The current period has been difficult and taxing on the travel operators and most other businesses, however, we can try [to] focus on some positive aspects to take from this.
“First and foremost, these surprising statistics demonstrate Chinese consumers’ strong, positive optimism during a tough period – compounding their need and desire to travel. As we closely follow the outbreak, Beijing’s response and consumer sentiment, China Skinny believes the spring bloom after this wintery period in the China travel industry will come and a similar surge is likely.”
China Skinny has predicted that females born in the 1980s and 1990s will lead the recovery.
“China has changed dramatically in the 17 years since SARS, and tourism operators will need to play by a whole new set of rules to connect with and appeal to Chinese travellers. Understanding these changes and characteristics will help prepare operators to best take advantage of the expected surge and advocacy that will follow,” Shen concluded.
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