Rise of middle class in emerging countries to power doubling of passenger traffic by 2035

dkma_logo_300INTERNATIONAL. Global passenger traffic will more than double by 2035, growing an average +4.0% per annum.

That’s according to a new report from industry analyst DKMA. It said 15.9 billion passengers a year will use the world’s airports by 2035, up from 7.6 billion in 2016.

More than half of the 8 billion additional passengers in the next 20 years will come from Asia Pacific, highlighting a “dramatic shift from West to East”. China will become the largest market in the world, surpassing the USA.

DKMA’s ‘Global Traffic Forecast 2016 – 2035’ notes that the increase in passenger traffic will be driven primarily by the growth of the middle class in emerging economies as well as by the recovery of more mature economies.

The fastest growing markets over the next 20 years will be Asia Pacific (+5.3%), the Middle East (+5.2%) and Latin America and Caribbean (+4.7%). Emerging markets will account for nearly 70% of future traffic growth, DKMA said.

“By 2035, the passenger volume in emerging countries such as India and Indonesia will surpass that of traditional market leaders such as Japan, Germany and the UK,” said DKMA Director Catherine Harmel-Tourneur.

“While several ongoing and emerging events may impact passenger traffic demand in the short term the global outlook is quite positive.

“Both the scale and speed of growth indicated by this latest forecast represent a daunting challenge for airports who will need to continue investing in order to meet future demand while guaranteeing the sort of high quality experience that is essential to grow non-aeronautical revenue.”

The DKMA report said aircraft movements would grow by an average of just +2.6%, indicating a trend towards larger aircraft with higher load factors (the average number of passengers per movement is expected to grow from 83 in 2016 to 109 in 2035).

The report is based on traffic statistics and economic growth forecasts as well as DKMA’s own analysis, and can be purchased here.

Food & Beverage The Magazine eZine