INTERNATIONAL. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) has released new analysis showing that long-haul international air travel may not recover to 2019 levels until 2024 following the COVID-19 crisis.
It added that imposing quarantine measures on arrival would further damage confidence in air travel and urged a “risk-based layered approach of globally harmonised biosecurity measures” as critical for the restart.
IATA has modelled two recovery scenarios. Under a ‘Baseline Scenario’ domestic markets would open by Q3 2020, with a slower phased opening of international markets. IATA said: “In 2021 we expect global passenger demand (measured in revenue passenger kilometres, RPKs) to be -24% below 2019 levels and -32% lower than IATA’s October 2019 Air Passenger forecast for 2021.
We don’t expect 2019 levels to be exceeded until 2023. As international markets open and economies recover, there will be further growth in air travel from the 2020 low point. But even by 2025 we would expect global RPKs to be -10% lower than the previous forecast.”
Under a ‘Pessimistic Scenario’ with a slower rate of reopenings and lockdowns extended into Q3, recovery could be further delayed. In this case, global RPKs in 2021 could be -34% lower than 2019 levels and -41% below previous forecasts for 2021.
“Major stimulus from governments combined with liquidity injections by central banks will boost the economic recovery once the pandemic is under control. But rebuilding passenger confidence will take longer. And even then, individual and corporate travellers are likely to carefully manage travel spend and stay closer to home,” said IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac.
Lasting long-haul impact
When the recovery begins, it is expected to be led by domestic travel, confirmed IATA.
- An IATA survey of recent air travellers conducted in April found that 58% are somewhat or very likely to restrict their initial travel to domestic journeys.
- Domestic Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs) will only recover to 2019 levels by 2022. International RPKs are only expected to return to 2019 levels in 2024.
“The impacts of the crisis on long-haul travel will be much more severe and of a longer duration than what is expected in domestic markets. This makes globally agreed and implemented biosecurity standards for the travel process all the more critical. We have a small window to avoid the consequences of uncoordinated unilateral measures that marked the post-9/11 period. We must act fast,” said de Juniac.
Avoid quarantine measures
IATA strongly urges governments to find alternatives to maintaining or introducing arrival quarantine measures as part of post-pandemic travel restrictions. IATA’s April survey of recent air travellers showed that:
- 86% were somewhat or very concerned about being quarantined while traveling, and
- 69% of recent travellers would not consider travelling if it involved a 14-day quarantine period.
“Even in the best of circumstances this crisis will cost many jobs and rob the economy of years of aviation-stimulated growth. To protect aviation’s ability to be a catalyst for the economic recovery, we must not make that prognosis worse by making travel impracticable with quarantine measures. We need a solution for safe travel that addresses two challenges. It must give passengers confidence to travel safely and without undue hassle. And it must give governments confidence that they are protected from importing the virus. Our proposal is for a layering of temporary non-quarantine measures until we have a vaccine, immunity passports or nearly instant COVID-19 testing available at scale,” said de Juniac.
IATA’s proposal for a temporary risk-based layered approach to provide governments with the confidence to open their border without quarantining arrivals includes:
- Preventing travel by those who are symptomatic with temperature screening and other measures
- Addressing the risks of asymptomatic travellers with governments managing a robust system of health declarations and vigorous contact tracing.
The mutual recognition of agreed measures is critical for the resumption of international travel. This is a key deliverable of the COVID-19 Aviation Recovery Task Force (CART) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO).
“CART has a very big job to do with little time to waste. It must find an agreement among states on the measures needed to control COVID-19 as aviation re-starts. And it must build confidence among governments that borders can be opened to travellers because a layered approach of measures has been properly implemented globally. IATA and the whole industry support this critical work,” said de Juniac.
