UK. London Heathrow Airport has increased its forecasts for passenger traffic for 2022 following a strong April, with 5 million passengers travelling through the UK hub.
Outbound leisure travellers are driving the recovery in passenger demand which is expected to last throughout the summer, the airport company said in a statement.
As a result, the company has increased its 2022 forecast – which was highlighted last month – by +16%, from 45.5 million passengers to nearly 53 million.
The airport company noted that it had delivered a strong service at Heathrow throughout the Easter holiday period, with 97% of passengers through security within ten minutes compared to queues of over three hours at other airports. The airport is set to reopen Terminal 4 by July and is already recruiting up to 1,000 new security officers.
“The ongoing war in Ukraine, higher fuel costs, continuing travel restrictions for key markets like the USA, and the potential for a further variant of concern, creates uncertainty going forward,” the airport company stated.
With inflation set to pass 10% and the UK economy predicted into slide in recession, the airport company said it is taking a “realistic assessment” that travel demand will reach 65% of pre-pandemic levels overall for the year.
The airport company also noted British Airways’ expectation to return to 74% of pre-pandemic travel this year adding that London Heathrow expects to remain loss-making across 2022. It also revealed that some airlines have predicted a return to profitability this quarter as a result of the ability to charge increased fares.
On the Civil Aviation Authority’s (CAA) plans to finalise Heathrow’s airport charges for the next five years, the airport company said: “It should be aiming to set a charge that can deliver the investments passengers want with affordable private financing while withstanding the shocks which are undoubtedly to come.”
The airport company proposes to deliver “easy, quick and reliable journeys passengers want” for less than a +2% increase in ticket prices. Its option suggests that the CAA lower fees by a further £8 (US$10) and to repay airlines a cash rebate if more people travel than expected.
“We urge the CAA to carefully consider this common-sense approach and avoid chasing the low-quality plan being pushed by some airlines which will only result in the return of longer queues and more frequent delays for passengers,” the airport company warned.
Heathrow Airport CEO John Holland-Kaye gave this assessment of the road ahead: “We all want to see travel get back to pre-pandemic levels as quickly as possible, and while I am encouraged by the rise in passenger numbers, we also have to be realistic.
“There are significant challenges ahead. The CAA can either plan for them with a robust and adaptable regulatory settlement that delivers for passengers and withstands any shocks, or it can prioritise airline profits by cutting back on passenger service leaving the industry to scramble when things go wrong in future.”
