Heathrow Airport targets +14.3% rise in retail income amid upgraded full-year forecast

Heathrow forecasts double-digit growth in retail income as passenger traffic recover, but spend per head is affected by the government decision to remove tax-free shopping for overseas visitors

UK. Heathrow Airport today issued its latest Investor Report, which forecasts that retail income will increase by +14.3% year-on-year to £644 million in 2023. Car parking will play a key role in the division’s performance, said the airport company, though it noted that the removal of tax-free shopping has resulted in a decline in spend per passenger to £8.71 to date this year, from £9.16 last year.

The Investor Report assesses performance in the year to date and offers an up-to-date outlook for the second half.

The airport company said that total revenue in 2023 is forecast to increase by +17.9% to £3,436 million. Non-aeronautical revenue should increase +9.4% year-on-year to £1,132 million.

Key financials 2022 and 2023 (forecast); click to enlarge

In 2023, traffic is expected to increase by +20.1% to 74 million passengers. This is in the middle of the guidance range released with Heathrow’s Q1 results and is an increase from the forecast published in December 2022 (67.2 million), reflecting stronger passenger traffic recovery to date in 2023.

Adjusted EBITDA in 2023 is forecast to increase +16.7% to £1,965 million.

Passenger traffic forecast; click to enlarge

As reported earlier today, Heathrow Airport has named Thomas Woldbye, who currently leads Copenhagen Airports, as its new Chief Executive Officer. He will replace John Holland-Kaye when he steps down later this year after nearly ten years in the role. ✈

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