RUSSIA/EUROPE. New flight data from ForwardKeys shows that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine caused an immediate stall in flight bookings to Europe and in the Russian domestic market.
The travel data analyst has compared flight bookings in the week following the invasion (24 February-2 March) to the previous seven days. Excluding Ukraine and Moldova (which closed their air space), and Russia and Belarus (which were subjected to flight bans and safety warnings), the destinations worst affected were generally those closest to the conflict.
Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Georgia, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Slovakia and Slovenia all saw a -30% to -50% collapse in bookings. Meanwhile all of the other European countries – with the exceptions of Belgium, Iceland, and Serbia, which saw single digit drops – experienced a decline in bookings between -10% and -30%.
Across the same period flight bookings in the Russian domestic market fell by -49%.
ForwardKeys’ analysis by source market shows that intra-European air traffic has been more negatively impacted than transatlantic travel. Flight bookings within Europe fell -23%; whereas they fell -13% from the US.
The only European air corridor left open to Russia is via Serbia, which is now acting as a gateway, ForwardKeys noted. This is most clearly demonstrated, the analyst said, by an immediate uplift in seat capacity between Russia and Serbia in March and by the profile of bookings.
Seat capacity scheduled in the first week of March shows around a +50% increase in available seats for flights from Russia to Serbia, compared to 21 February before full scale military operations began.
Some 60% more flight tickets were issued for travel from Russia to another destination via Serbia in the week immediately after the invasion than there were in the whole of January.
Also in January, ForwardKeys revealed that 85% of transfers from Russia via Serbia were to Montenegro. In the week after the invasion, the figure was 40%, as Serbia became a hub for onward travel to Cyprus, France, Switzerland, Italy and elsewhere.
Olivier Ponti, VP Insights, ForwardKeys, said: “Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has made an immediate impact, stalling what had been a strong recovery in travel since early January.
“What I find surprising is that transatlantic travel and western European destinations have been less badly affected than I feared – North Americans can tell the difference between war in Ukraine and war in Europe, and so far, it seems that travellers regard the rest of Europe as relatively safe.”
He added: “There is also a strong pent-up demand. What’s most notable is the speed with which Serbia has become the gateway for travel between Russia and Europe. However, these are early days in a global political and economic crisis.
“What happens to travel will certainly be affected by the progress of the war and the impact of sanctions. Over the coming weeks, I expect we will see inflation and possible fuel supply issues affecting what would otherwise be a strong post-pandemic recovery, as COVID-19 travel restrictions are progressively lifted.”
