CHINA. Travel analytics company ForwardKeys is projecting a jump in Chinese domestic flight bookings as the impact of the COVID-19 outbreak eases. It said it expects a “significant uplift” in bookings after yesterday’s news that Beijing has lifted a 14-day quarantine requirement on travel between the capital and low-risk areas in China.
Chinese domestic air travel bottomed out in mid-February, from which point it has been in “muted recovery mode,” said ForwardKeys. In the week of 23-29 February, coinciding with a modest restarting of the economy and an increase in domestic air capacity, it jumped by +62.9% over the previous week. From a low base it has since grown by +19.5% between the first week of March and the third week of April.
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “We have been expecting a jump in domestic flight bookings to occur as soon as domestic travel restrictions are eased and now that appears to be happening. It is currently still a little too early to see that trend in our flight data; but we expect to do so in the coming days, especially given the imminent Labour Day holiday. While this looks like the emergence of the proverbial ‘green shoots’ of recovery; it is a domestic phenomenon. Chinese international air traffic is still falling.”
The destinations leading the tentative recovery include commercial centres such as Guangdong, Zhejiang, Shanghai, Sichuan and Yunnan, noted ForwardKeys.
Travel to Shenzhen, one of the China’s first Special Economic Zones, and to Hainan Island, China’s tropical holiday resort, is likely to indicate the recovery trend as it develops, added the analyst. In both cases, flight arrivals picked up in the third week of February, although the base was lower for Hainan, as a leisure destination, than Shenzhen, as a commercial centre. The imminent May holiday is expected to see a surge in travel to Hainan.
As reported, in a major fillip for the offshore duty free business, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has just introduced a new scheme allowing Mainland visitors to Hainan to spend any of their unspent RMB30,000 (US$4,240) annual allowance online for up to 180 days once they arrive back – and have the goods couriered to their home. The business has also been boosted by the opening of two new offshore duty free stores on the island this month.
ForwardKeys was less upbeat about international travel to and from China, amid continuing restrictions on overseas flights. It is estimated that there are just 130 international flights to China per week and a maximum of 5,000 people per day entering and leaving the country.
Ponti said: “We can confirm tiny green shoots of recovery in China’s domestic aviation market. So, if you are a hotelier with properties and clientele in the right parts of the People’s Republic, you can look forward to welcoming guests again. However, while it is encouraging to see air travel increasing within China, there is currently no indication that anyone outside China can yet look forward to the return of Chinese tourists.”
