AUSTRALASIA. With quarantine-free travel between Australia and New Zealand resuming on Monday, research undertaken by ForwardKeys illustrates the strong level of consumer demand, notably for flights from Australia to New Zealand.
In the week after 6 April – when New Zealand Prime Minister announced the planned ‘travel bubble’ from 19 April, bookings jumped sharply. The total number of tickets issued for bidirectional travel between the neighbouring countries reached 49% of those issued in the equivalent week in 2019, the last “normal” travel year.
By 12 April, the balance of bookings was strongly in the direction of Australia to New Zealand. Based on air tickets issued for travel between the two countries, the volume from Australia to New Zealand recovered to 69% of those seen in the same period in 2019, while the opposite direction (New Zealand to Australia) recovered to 27% of 2019 levels. Of all tickets issued between Australia and New Zealand, 73% are from Australia going to New Zealand, while 27% are from New Zealand towards Australia (also partially explained by the weight of population).
Analysis of traveller profile shows leisure travel leading the way and business travel lagging. 91% of bookings were for leisure travel and 9% for business. However, benchmarked against the equivalent period in 2019, business bookings were further behind, -75.9%, compared with leisure, which were -68.8% behind.
Analysis of the major routes between the two countries reveals that the bulk of bookings, 46%, are between the three major cities on Australia’s east coast, Sydney, Brisbane and Melbourne, and New Zealand’s biggest city, Auckland. Bookings between those cities and New Zealand’s second city Christchurch represent 15%.
Bookings to Queenstown, “the adventure capital of the world”, have performed exceptionally strongly too. Overall, bookings made from the whole of Australia to New Zealand in the period from 6-12 April were -27% behind those made in the equivalent period in 2019, but bookings to Queenstown were +16% ahead of pre-COVID levels.
Inspection of travel timing suggests strong pent-up demand for winter sports, such as skiing and snowboarding; 72% of the bookings to Queenstown are for arrival between June and October 2021 – the ski season in New Zealand.During the first quarter of 2021, the volume of flight tickets issued between Australia and New Zealand were just 0.8% of Q1 2019. However, the announcement that quarantine would be lifted triggered a +2,583% jump in tickets issued, compared to the week before.
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti commented: “We are observing the reactivation of travel and the release of pent-up demand. The shape of the revival is very much in line with what we have been expecting. Leisure travel is leading the charge, as many people have been longing to take a holiday; and they have seized the opportunity immediately. It is somewhat of a relief that business travel is not quite as depressed as many people have been predicting, as it is an important driver of profitability for the airlines.”
He added: “Right now, it’s one-way traffic, with almost three times as much travel going to New Zealand as in the opposite direction. I expect this is partly explained by there being a much higher proportion of New Zealanders living in Australia (around 600,000) than vice versa (around 60,000), who are keen to fly back to see their families, and by enthusiasm for a winter sports holiday.”
