INTERNATIONAL. China will become the largest global passenger market by 2040, with India climbing from fifth in 2016 to third in the rankings.
That’s according to the latest edition of Airports Council International’s (ACI) World Airport Traffic Forecasts (WATF) 2017–2040. It has been released to coincide with The Trinity Forum, which is taking place in Bangkok, Thailand this week. The event is jointly organised by ACI World, ACI Asia-Pacific and The Moodie Davitt Report.
A number of other emerging economies are also projected to rise in the passenger market size rankings including Indonesia, the United Arab Emirates and Vietnam. By 2040, emerging economies will account for over 60% of all passenger traffic, ACI said.
Gains will come primarily from international traffic, with a two-year CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of +8.4%. International passenger traffic is expected to reach 73% of the size of domestic traffic by 2018, representing more than 52% of total passenger traffic growth over the two-year period.
“Progress in the liberalisation of trans-border air transport, enhanced aircraft efficiency over medium- and long-haul operations, and the persistent rise in per capita income will fuel the propensity to travel,” said ACI World Director General Angela Gittens.
“This is especially true in highly populous regions, like Asia Pacific, where passenger traffic expansion is projected to represent almost 53% of global growth in the next two years.”
The report notes that there are several factors that could curtail the continued rise in air transport demand, “potentially hampering growth prospects over the short- and medium-term”. These include geopolitical unrest, terrorism and threats to security in certain parts of the world.
ACI said physical capacity considerations and potential bottlenecks in air transport infrastructure also pose challenges in accommodating future demand. Protectionist policies “that retreat from further economic integration and air transport liberalisation” could also have an adverse effect, the organisation said.
The WATF features traffic forecasts for over 100 country markets, and presents detailed metrics which include total number of passengers (broken down into international and domestic traffic), total air cargo and total aircraft movements. Absolute figures, compounded annual growth rates, market shares and global growth contributions are presented over three time horizons: short-, medium- and long-term over the 2017–2040 period.
“Since infrastructure projects are costly and often disruptive, a data-driven understanding of future demand provides airport planners and investors the necessary information to build effective development strategies,” said Gittens.
In addition to global forecasts, regional estimates have been developed for Asia Pacific, Africa, Europe, Latin America/Caribbean, the Middle East and North America. Airport traffic projections are also presented for major economic groupings such as emerging versus advanced economies, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa), G7 (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States), MINT (Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey) and more.
