EUROPE. Airports Council International (ACI) Europe has released updated forecasts for passenger traffic in 2021, with both ‘base’ and ‘pessimistic’ scenarios showing volumes sharply down compared to 2019.
Passenger traffic will remain at “low levels” in Q1 and Q2, with some recovery in Q3, subject to vaccinations being effectively rolled out and travel restrictions being at least partially lifted. ACI Europe’s mid-case scenario foresees a -40% fall in Q3 traffic versus Q3 2019, with a more pessimistic scenario showing a -57% decline if travel restrictions persist.
The decline in Q4 could range between -45% and -57%, said the organisation. In 2020, Europe’s airports handled 1.73 billion fewer passengers than in 2019, taking the market back to pre-1995 levels.
ACI Europe said that airports’ financial resilience is “faltering” due to the lasting shock of the crisis. European airports lost €30 billion in 2020 compared to 2019 or around 60% of normal annual revenues, it said.
“Low forecast passenger volumes and heightened market/competitive pressures on airport revenues mean that losses keep mounting for airports,” it said. “The latter might also result in a disconnect between the pace of the traffic recovery and the pace of the revenue recovery. As a result, in the mid case scenario, airports will still lose another €25 billion in revenues in 2021 compared to 2019.”
