CANADA. The International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) has predicted a “complete and sustainable recovery” in air travel this year, with volumes expected to surpass pre-pandemic levels.
The UN aviation agency said that after a near-three year downturn, passenger traffic in 2023 is set to return to pre-pandemic levels on most routes by the first quarter, and to be +3% higher than 2019 levels by the end of the year.
ICAO Council President Salvatore Sciacchitano commented: “Assuring the safe, secure, and sustainable recovery of air services will be key to restoring aviation’s ability to act as a catalyst for sustainable development at the local, national and global levels, and will consequently be vital to countries’ recovery from the broader impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic.”
ICAO Secretary General Juan Carlos Salazar said: “The air passenger forecasts ICAO is announcing today build on the strong momentum toward recovery in 2022, as previously assessed by ICAO statistical analysis.”
“Through ICAO, governments have reached agreements on goals toward zero accident fatalities by 2030 and zero carbon emissions by 2050 goals, and these will continue to play key roles in both guiding continued progress and in prioritising ICAO’s implementation support initiatives.”
Amid the resumption of normal travel in many parts of the globe, particularly in China, ICAO anticipates airlines to return to profitability in the final quarter of 2023 after a three-year slump.
Looking further ahead, it forecasts air travel demand in 2024 to be even stronger, at around +4% higher than in 2019.
Data from ICAO suggests that passenger volumes in 2022 climbed by around +47% year-on-year, while revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs) climbed by approximately +70% over the same period, thanks to the rapid recovery of many international routes.
The strong rebound in air travel demand resulted in 2022 passenger numbers reaching roughly 74% of pre-pandemic levels.
