Global passenger traffic increases +5.6% in the first half of 2016

INTERNATIONAL. Global passenger traffic was up +5.6% in the first half of 2016, according to Airports Council international (ACI).

International passenger traffic grew +6.0%, and at a higher rate than domestic traffic (+5.4%).

However, the reverse was true in June, with international growth of +4.0% compared to a +5.1% domestic increase.

“The lower than expected growth rates during June 2016 in international traffic in Europe and the slowdown in the Middle East testified to the fragile and uncertain economic conditions, political instability and passenger sensitivity to the wave of terrorist attacks,” noted ACI. “These events weighed on travel confidence and air transport demand.”

All regions posted growth in passenger volumes in the first half of the year, except for Africa where the drop in passenger traffic was “apparent and anticipated” (-4.4% year-to-date). Growth rates ranged from +1.7% in the recessionary Latin America and Caribbean region to the buoyant Asia Pacific and Middle East regions, which both grew strongly at +8.8% on a year-to-date basis. The mature markets of Europe and North America both grew +4.9% during the first half of the year.

ACI chart

In Africa, passenger traffic decreased -11.8% in June 2016 and -4.4% in the first half. ACI said traffic was negatively affected by the disruption of air traffic in Egypt and significant traffic drops in Tunisia, the major leisure destinations for European travellers.

“Security risks in Northern Africa curtailed traffic at major tourist destinations while plummeting oil prices stunted the economic progress of such key economies as Nigeria,” said ACI. “Weak overall demand across the continent, poor connectivity within the continent and a poor record of liberalising aviation represented additional obstacles to prospective growth in traffic levels.”

Passenger traffic grew +9.9% in June in Asia Pacific, outpacing the +8.8% year-to-date growth rate. International and domestic passenger traffic was strong during the first half at +10.1% and +8.2% respectively. Major commercial airports in China, India and Korea remained the major driving forces for the robust air passenger growth in the region (+12.1%, +17% and +14.1% respectively).

ACI commented: “On the back of a growing middle class in key emerging markets, the significant growth of intercontinental hubs in Asia Pacific revealed that air transport’s nucleus is moving eastward.

“Despite the slowing of economic growth in China, its move away from an investment-led economy to a consumption-driven economy will further stimulate air transport demand in the long run. India is also poised to be one of the largest aviation markets in the world in the years to come. The combination of a move towards a more liberalised market for aviation, coupled with stronger economic fundamentals, helped the country become one of the fastest-growing markets in the world.”

In Europe, passenger traffic grew +2.1% in June, which is below the year-to-date figure of +4.9%. International passenger traffic grew +1.8% compared with the previous year but the first half of the year in general was more optimistic: +4.5% growth in international passenger traffic and +6.1% growth in domestic passenger traffic on a year-to-date basis. Major commercial airports in the UK, Germany and Spain—the three largest air transport markets in the region—posted +4.8%, +2.9% and +11.6% growth during the first half of 2016.

“The recovery that followed the recession and the Euro area crisis placed air transport demand in advanced economies on a stronger footing. The continued inroads made by low-cost carriers, coupled with the positioning of Middle Eastern and Turkish hubs for enhanced connectivity, represented a true game changer for mature markets, such as Europe,” noted ACI.

“Conversely, the United Kingdom, one of the largest aviation markets in the world, recently voted to exit the European Union, which left a cloud of uncertainty over the European single aviation market. Finally, the devastating terrorist attacks that took place at Brussels and Istanbul Atatürk airports have curtailed traffic levels on key market segments and routes.”

ACI chart 2

In Latin America and the Caribbean, passenger traffic grew +1.9 % in June, consistent with the year-to-date figure of +1.7%. International passenger traffic outpaced domestic passenger traffic on a monthly and year-to-date basis (+6.6% versus +0.3% in June and +6.3% versus +0% year-to-date). In the first six months of 2016, major Brazilian airports recorded unprecedented traffic loss of -8.4%, which was barely offset by the strong passenger traffic growth in Mexico (+10.5%) and Colombia (+6.9%).

ACI said: “The Latin America and Caribbean region was a mixed picture. Brazil’s deep recession continued to stunt air transport demand in the region’s largest economy. At the same time, Colombia and Mexico experienced robust growth across their major airport hubs. Mexican airports in particular, benefitted immensely from the American economic recovery that coincided with the expansion of routes by airlines serving major destinations in Central America.”

In the Middle East, passenger traffic grew +3.4 % in June, which is substantially below the year-to-date figure of +8.8%. International passenger traffic in the region grew +3.6% in June and +9.3% during the first half of the year.

“Aviation stakeholders continued to capitalise on the strategic location of airports in the Middle East,” commented ACI. “Significant capacity expansions positioned the region’s airports as aviation’s primary hubs for intercontinental travel. As the nodes that connect long-haul flights from east and west, north and south, Middle Eastern airports continued to experience double-digit growth rates.”

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Finally, passenger traffic grew +5.0% in June and +4.9% from January to June 2016 in North America. International passenger traffic outpaced domestic passenger traffic (+5.6% versus +4.8% year-to-date). The +5.0% growth rate in passenger volumes at major commercial airports in North America over the course of six months was equivalent to an additional estimated 43 million passengers, demonstrating the scale of air transport industry in the region, according to ACI.

The United States outperformed Canada in passenger traffic growth, consistent with the macroeconomic climate differences.

“After years of consolidation and capacity discipline on the part of US-based airlines, North America experienced an important resurgence in air transport demand, particularly at many of its mega hubs,” the organisation reported. “Growing +5.5% year-over-year in passenger traffic to the record-breaking total of over 100 million passengers in 2015, Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport benefitted tremendously from its strategic location as a major connecting hub and port of entry into North America. Where physical capacity and infrastructure could accommodate, recent upsurge in traffic was a further reminder that growth in throughput above historical trends is still possible in these markets.”

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