EUROPE. In the wake of ‘Brexit’, could it be back to the heady days before 1999 when there were queues at the liquor store checkout and plastic bags stuffed with 200 cigarette cartons?
Based on 2015 full year actuals, Air4Casts* has examined the airports with the most to gain in terms of passenger flows to and from the EU and the UK.
The UK to EU airports to benefit
London Heathrow held on to the top spot for EU traffic in 2015 by the slightest of margins. However London Gatwick is on the rise and will certainly grow more strongly than Heathrow both this year and next, Air4Casts said. London Stansted is comfortably ahead of Manchester, while London Luton heads up the “tail-enders.”
The EU airports to benefit: The top ten
Dublin is tied with Amsterdam Schiphol at the top. Then there are two lower clusters of four airports, the analyst reported.
Air4Casts said this raises the question of the renewed significance, in a return to a pre-1999 scenario, of the business traveller.
The analyst noted that prior to 1999 such travellers were deemed to be a lucrative travel retail target, even if they no longer are. It said this raised questions of whether changes in corporate lifestyle would mitigate against a liquor or tobacco purchase; whether there could be differences for business people travelling in groups (pre-1999 they were markedly less likely to purchase); and whether there were differences for female executives travelling with males.
The top ten EU airport pairs
Heathrow dominates the top 10 EU airport pairs, according to Air4Casts. It has seven in the top ten while Gatwick has the other three.
A touch of reality?
Air4Casts believes that the UK Treasury view on duty free is unlikely to be sympathetic.
“It will argue that it has no need to surrender the duty component in an airport purchase because it is more probable that the purchase would be made in the UK anyway,” the analyst said.
“It will reason that there is a substantial lobby which regards these products as harmful and will be therefore reluctant to be seen to encourage their purchase. The Brussels view could be more negative.”
*NOTE: The Moodie Davitt Report works closely with Air4Casts in an informal alliance. For details of Air4Casts work visit www.Air4Casts.com.
