UK/INTERNATIONAL. Data from the IWSR 2017-2021 Forecast suggests that whisky, gin and tequila, together with Chinese spirit baijiu, will contribute most to the overall total global spirits category growth, which is expected to reach 3.19 billion cases by 2021.
Global volumes of whisky, gin and tequila are expected to make gains of 55.2 million, 7.1 million and 5.8 million nine-litre cases respectively over the next five years, following their rapid growth in 2016.
According to IWSR, consumption of local whiskies in India continues to thrive. Scotch in India is also forecast to continue to be one of the largest growth segments. Globally, Scotch is forecast to contribute 10.5 million cases to whisky growth over the next five years and US whiskies a further 8.9 million cases. Other whiskies (predominantly Indian) will be the largest contributor, growing by 28.2 million cases. The USA is the second-largest growth market for whisky behind India, forecasting the strongest gains for US and Irish whiskey, said IWSR.
Tequila will make its largest gains on the US market, with additional growth forecast in its domestic market, Mexico.
Despite being a top growth market for many categories, the total US alcohol market is forecast to decline by 37 million cases over the next five years. The forecasted growth in wine, whisky and tequila is not enough to offset declines in beer, cider and mixed drinks, said IWSR.
IWSR data suggests that gin’s domestic market, the UK, has led the way for the “gin revival”. “The huge range of brands now available on the UK market (likely to be over 700) offers plenty of room for consumers to experiment,” said IWSR. The UK gin market is forecast to gain an additional 1.4 million cases by 2021. Similar growth is expected in Spain and the USA.
Baijiu is forecast to see the largest growth of all spirits categories over the next five years (+48.2 million), benefiting from a growing economy in China and increased demand for business banquets.
Beer and wine are forecast to gain the largest volumes in the overall alcohol market over the next five years, adding 139 million and 76.5 million cases respectively. The IWSR forecasts the strongest growth for beer in Mexico, India and Vietnam.
China and the USA will see the largest growth in wine consumption over the next five years, with both local and imported wines winning over consumers.
