‘Resilient in challenging times’: ForwardKeys research paints positive picture of global travel industry

Forwardkeys NEW LOGO 1INTERNATIONAL/THAILAND. Canada is the star destination in North America and Europe is recovering from last year’s terrorist attacks with arrivals growth back on track, according to new air travel research.

The latest study from analyst ForwardKeys highlights how political matters have prompted Chinese travellers to turn their backs on South Korea, while people from the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) countries are travelling in greater numbers than last year.

The research shows passengers from Europe, the Americas and Asia are making more bookings and taking more flights, despite recent terrorist attacks and ongoing geo-political wrangles.

ForwardKeys, which predicts future patterns in air travel by analysing 16 million booking transactions a day, suggests the sector has been resilient in challenging times. However, it advises businesses in the industry must be adaptable to meet shifting travel patterns.

ForwardKeys CEO Olivier Jager said: “This overview reveals the resilience of the travel industry globally. People are finding alternative new destinations, and they are returning to others, previously blighted by dreadful events.

“However, in a world of shifting travel patterns, businesses that depend on travellers need to be able to readjust ever more quickly.”

The Americas

All tables credited to ForwardKeys
All tables credited to ForwardKeys

Canada and Mexico are setting the pace for long-haul arrivals in the Americas, with the Netherlands, China, the UK and Germany fuelling the additional forward bookings to both countries.

ForwardKeys says the US suffered a decrease in visitors in the first quarter of this year, which was attributed to President Donald Trump’s travel ban and the stronger value of the Dollar. Forward bookings to the US have picked up, however, mainly due to the Easter shift.

Western EuropeForwardKeys-graph-2Long-haul arrivals in Western Europe are on the increase, according to the research.

The analyst notes that it has taken over a year for the air travel sector in the region to recover from the terrorist attacks, but long-haul arrivals are starting to surge again. Visitor numbers have surpassed those recorded before the Paris attack in November 2015.

It remains to be seen what the impact of this week’s terror attack in the city will be.

China and South KoreaForwardKeys-Graph-3Beijing’s anger at the stationing of US THAAD missiles in South Korea is having a marked effect on air travel figures, according to ForwardKeys’ data.

International arrivals in South Korea, for stays of four to eight nights, dropped by -10% in the first quarter of this year due to cancellations by Chinese tour groups in March. Forward bookings for the same category are currently lagging by -28%.

The report predicts ASEAN countries are the most likely to benefit from what it describes as “South Korea’s visitor crisis”.

BRIC countriesForwardKeys-Graph-4ForwardKeys-Graph-5ForwardKeys says the BRIC countries are travelling again in bigger numbers, with the upward trend in Brazilian air travel continuing following the end of the country’s political crisis in 2016. Russia had its first positive monthly performance, in December 2016, since its annexation of Crimea in March 2014.

Currencies in both countries are recovering in value too, indicating further growth in travel is in the pipeline.

Forward bookings analysed in the study show four out of five of the top increasing destinations for Brazilians are in Europe. Indian travellers apparently prefer Asia Pacific, while the data indicates Russians like Georgia, Czech Republic, UAE and Italy.

Turkey’s big increase is attributed to Russian travel sanctions the previous year.ForwardKeys-Graph-6Thailand is benefiting from the perceived “BRIC boom”, according to ForwardKeys.

The research notes that visitors from these countries are helping to fill a gap left by a reduction in Chinese visitors which followed a decision by the Thai government in September 2016 to discourage cheaper tour groups from China.

Commenting on the report, Jager said: “In summary, Europe is recovering, the BRIC are back, Canada is a rising star and Thailand has made a very positive start to the year.

“However, the deployment of THAAD missiles in South Korea has torpedoed its inbound tourism industry.”

ForwardKeys will present the findings from its report at the World Travel and Tourism Council’s Global Summit, which runs in Bangkok between 25-26 April.

PretAirporter ADVERT Deeper

Food & Beverage The Magazine eZine