THAILAND. Pacific Asia Travel Association’s (PATA) latest travel forecast foresees a healthy increase in international visitor arrivals (IVAs) in 2023, with strong growth figures expected in 2024 and 2025.
Sponsored by Visa and with data and insights from Euromonitor International, PATA published its latest forecasts based on the changing dynamics of travel and tourism into and across 39 destinations in Asia Pacific. These numbers vary according to three scenarios – mild, medium and severe pandemic impact.
According to the forecast, IVAs in 2023 will reach 705 million under the most optimistic scenario, while the number under the gloomiest scenario stands at 390 million. Under a moderate scenario, PATA expects 516 million IVAs. These figures compare to 255 million in 2022.
The growth rate under the mild scenario is predicted to exceed that of pre-pandemic 2019 by +3.3%, but would be still nearly -25% short of it under the medium scenario, and some -43% behind under the severe scenario.
By the end of 2024, IVA growth rates are expected to surpass the 2019 benchmark level, further increasing under the mild scenario, and up by +6.7% under the medium scenario.
Under the severe scenario, however, IVAs in 2025 are still predicted to be behind the 2019 level by about -10%.
In the newly released Asia Pacific Destination Forecasts 2023-2025, PATA covers each of the 39 destinations in much greater detail, with a focus on source markets and air capacity changes in each case.
One source market of particular interest is Mainland China. PATA noted that despite very strong annual increases in arrivals from China to Asia Pacific destinations, IVAs are expected to lag the 2019 peak by around -6% by the end of 2025 under the severe scenario.
Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) Chair Peter Semone said: “While these forecasts are extremely encouraging, hurdles still remain, and the travel and tourism sector will require ongoing vigilance and operational flexibility as these issues present themselves over the coming years.
“While the COVID-19 outbreak is no longer at the global pandemic stage for example, it has not disappeared entirely, and we must come to grips with living with it for some time yet.”
He added: “In addition, the conflict in Ukraine, a softening global economic outlook with rising inflation and the increased costs of international travel will all have to be dealt with in ways that satisfy the increasingly diverse demands of the traveller of both today and tomorrow.”
Visa Head of Cross-border & Sales Excellence, Asia Pacific David Fowler, said: “PATA’s forecasts offer the travel industry with a much-needed and renewed sense of optimism after almost three years of border closures. Nonetheless, many headwinds lie ahead as traveller habits and preferences have changed substantially in a post-pandemic and hyper-digitalised world.
“The travel industry needs to understand the unique needs of travellers, many who are digital natives, in order to offer the flexible, novel and personalised travel experiences that they have come to expect.” ✈
