Pacific Asia Travel Association predicts +27% rise in international arrivals for 2021

ASIA PACIFIC. In a mid-year revision of its Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts for 2021 to 2023, the Pacific Travel Retail Association (PATA) has said that travel is likely to remain subdued for the rest of 2021 but with recovery occurring thereafter. It said that the travel revival in its region will happen in a “very uneven fashion”. International visitor arrivals (IVAs) to the region could climb by +27% this year compared to 2020, but only under its “mild” scenario (see below).

PATA’s revised international visitor arrivals numbers across its three main sub-regions, with 2019 measured against last year (click to enlarge)

The association said that across all 39 Asia Pacific destinations it covers, IVAs reached 126.47 million last year, an upward revision of +3.8% on initial figures.

This translated into an overall reduction between 2019 and 2020 of more than 577 million foreign arrivals. PATA forecasts that those losses will continue throughout 2021 for most sub-regions, under all three of its scenarios for the period ahead. The exception is Asia, which is predicted to have a positive annual growth of almost +51% year-over-year, under PATA’s “mild” scenario.

Predicted annual increases in international arrivals for the next three years (click to enlarge)

As noted above, the association said that this could deliver an overall annual regional increase of just over +27%, between 2020 and 2021, but only under the mild scenario (and still well below 2019). All other positions remain negative over that period.

Overall, PATA said that 2022 looks to be promising, with annual increases against 2021 predicted across the board, ranging from gains of +105% to +320% across the 39 destinations under the mild scenario, to between +8% and +75% even under the “severe”, and most negative, scenario. PATA noted that it is important not to be seduced by such large annual percentage increases however, as despite those gains, the absolute volume of arrivals remains well below the 2019 benchmark for IVAs, even out to 2023 under some scenarios.

Predicted recovery rates for the Asia Pacific sub-regions measured against 2019 for the next three years (click to enlarge)

PATA’s expected results for 2021 average just 23% of the 2019 volume at best. During 2022 that is expected to increase to between 27% and 61% depending on the scenario, reaching between 51% and 99% by 2023, also depending on the prevailing scenario at that time.

The surge in annual arrivals between 2020 and 2021 into Asia under the mild scenario is expected to come from mostly Northeast Asia source markets, with the Russian Federation also adding a welcome boost in numbers, PATA said. Collectively, this top five source market cluster is expected to add an additional 29 million IVAs into Asia between 2020 and 2021, representing some 80% of the predicted increase into the region over that period.

The predicted performance of source markets for this year under PATA’s mild scenario (click to enlarge)

Along with the volume increases, PATA believes that there are likely to be some significant annual percentage growth gains into Asia between 2020 and 2021. Although these increases are more than robust, it said, the actual impact on the absolute volume of arrivals is minimal.

PATA CEO Liz Ortiguera said: “Expectations for a return to the past should be shelved and more attention paid to those source and destination markets best preparing to drive recovery within Asia Pacific. Travel recovery is being driven by a complex range of factors from the varying market policies regarding virus control and containment to local citizens’ sentiments on vaccine take-up.”

She added: “Success will come to those that efficiently implement science-based best practices to control the pandemic in their home markets to restore both source market government and consumer confidence. In the travel industry, a duty of care-based approach in delivering services and products will support a more sustainable recovery.

“On a positive note, our forecast projects a pent-up demand for travel experiences in the Asia Pacific region. Flexibility in marketing and delivering new experiences to engage travellers as corridors open up will be critical.”

The updated PATA Asia Pacific Visitor Forecasts 2021-2023 is available in full here

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