INTERNATIONAL. The continued slowdown of growth in the aviation sector will be felt via a modest +1.5% year-on-year gain in passenger numbers across the world’s top 20 international airports in September.

That’s according to leading aviation analyst Air4casts*, with which The Moodie Report works closely.

Air4casts noted: “International passenger numbers through the world’s international airports will struggle to reach single point growth this September. The top 20 international airports will see their traffic rise by no more than +1.5%.

“Because the largest international airports have failed to benefit from the expected seasonal surge, the passenger forecast for this month is dipping further.”

To underline the slowing growth, Air4casts presented July passenger traffic figures for 15 of the world’s top international airports. The top-line figures (international traffic only) were:

Bangkok, Suvarnabhumi: +6.6% [but a certain downturn to follow thanks to recent political troubles -Ed]
Copenhagen, Denmark: +0.7%
Frankfurt, Germany: -1.2%
London Gatwick, UK: -1.3%
London Heathrow, UK: +0.1%
London Stansted, UK: -5.6%
Madrid Barajas, UK: +1.1%
Manchester, UK: – 4.7%
Munich, Germany: -2.1%
Palma, Spain: -1.2%%
Paris Roissy/Orly, France: +2.7%
Rome Fiumicino: +16.2%
Tokyo Narita, Japan: -5.8%

In addition, four airports which are predominantly international in nature have announced their total passenger numbers for the month of July.

Amsterdam Airport Schiphol: -1.5%
Hong Kong, China: +1.3%
Incheon, South Korea: -6.6%
Zurich, Switzerland: +7.0%

Air4casts included six other key international airports in its executive summary [figures are for international passengers only].

Birmingham, UK: +9.8%
Helsinki, Finland: +4.1%
Moscow Sheremetyevo, Russia: +8.1%
Oslo, Norway: +2.1%
Osaka Kansai, Japan: -4.2%
Sao Paulo Guarulhos, Brazil: +10.2%


Air4casts said that 15 US airlines have announced passenger traffic numbers for the month of August. Combined they represent a year-on-year fall of almost -4%. These airlines account for some 45% of the expected US traffic for the month.

“Their traffic had been expected to be down but -4% comes as an unwelcome surprise,” said Air4casts.

Here are some key numbers (total passengers):

American Airlines: -4.2%
Continental Airlines: -1.4%
Delta Airlines: -6%
Northwest Airlines: -1.7%
Southwest Airlines: -6.6%
United Airlines: -5.4%
US Airways: -5.9%


More positively, Air4casts said that European low-cost carriers have turned in some “phenomenal results” for their August trading. Here are a few of the latest low-cost carrier and full scheduled airline results:

Air Berlin, Germany: -+23.4%
Aer Lingus, Ireland: +13.6%
British Airways, UK: -1.6%
easyJet, UK: +23.7%
Ryanair, Ireland: +19.3%
SAS Group, Sweden: -10.4%
Spanair, Spain: -8.1%


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Air4casts reports minimal July passenger growth across 225 airports as Europe struggles – 22/08/08

“˜A period of unprecedented difficulties’ – Air4casts points to single-point passenger traffic growth in final quarter – 11/08/08

June passenger traffic growth was “˜significantly lower’ than expected says Air4casts – 23/07/08

‘Reassuring’ May passenger numbers; summer travel demand to “˜hold up passably well’ says Air4casts – 16/06/08