CHINA. Swiss research agency m1nd-set has completed a detailed study into changing Chinese travel trends to assist its clients better understand “the world’s most sought-after shoppers” and plan accordingly.
m1nd-set noted: “With the continuing political tensions between China and South Korea over the THAAD missile crisis, travel- and tourism-related businesses will need to brace themselves for further declines in Chinese tourists in the months ahead. A clear understanding of where Chinese travellers will be heading to in the next 12 months is going to have significant impact on business models and revenue forecasts.”
The report has been compiled through m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service (B1S) air traffic forecasting tool*, provided in partnership with IATA and ARC’s ‘Direct Data Service’ (DDS) database.
It demonstrates where Chinese travellers are planning their outbound travel by bringing together both the current traffic status by region, market and even airport, together with the air traffic forecasts for the next 12 months. The latter highlight the destinations Chinese travellers are planning to visit and which market will suffer a decline in visitor numbers.
Pablo Saez Gil, Head of B1S at m1nd-set commented: “As well as the obvious losses the South Korean market is experiencing and will continue to experience due to the political tensions, there are other regions and markets that will also see a fall in inbound travellers from China.
“The 12-month forecast also reveals the ‘winners’ – regions and markets which will see both moderate and marked increases in inbound Chinese travellers.
“It’s no surprise that Northeast Asia will suffer significant losses but we also see Central Asia experiencing similar significant losses, while Europe and the Middle East will see double-digit gains. On an individual market basis, we can see that Russia, Indonesia and Malaysia will be among the main beneficiaries of the changing traveller trends.”
Within the Asia region, m1nd-set’s B1S China analysis shows Central Asia will see a -29% decline in visitor numbers from China in the next 12 months, even more than Northeast Asia, where a -24.6% fall is projected.
Southeast Asia will see the strongest growth with a +5.5% increase. South Korea is expected to see visitor numbers halved in the next 12 months. Japan, Singapore and Taiwan will also see double-digit declines with -18%, -24% and -25% respectively.
Malaysia is expected to experience +33% growth in Chinese visitors over the next 12 months and Indonesia will grow by over +16%. Russia stands to see significant gains in Chinese arrivals with an increase of over +35% while Italy will benefit the most among Western European markets with a +13.7% increase.
m1nd-set Owner & CEO Peter Mohn commented: “The focus on Chinese travellers isn’t new, but there has been a marked increase in interest in this market in recent months given the changing trends as a result of the THAAD missile dispute.
“As well as providing shopper behaviour insights, our role as consultants at m1nd-set is to enable our clients to plan ahead and anticipate destinations for the major outbound travel markets. The B1S China analysis, which will be updated on a monthly basis, will help understand who the winners and losers are in terms of the destination markets for the Chinese travellers over the next 12-month period. It will be an essential planning tool for many of our clients in the duty free and travel retail industry.”
For more information on m1nd-set’s Business 1ntelligence Service reports, please contact m1ndset by email or telephone: T: +41 21 925 5025 | info@m1nd-set.com
*NOTE: The Moodie Davitt Report has entered into an exclusive agreement with m1nd-set to offer critical traffic insights relating to airport commercial tenders.
Click here to see B1S’s insights relating to the Tel Aviv Ben Gurion International Airport duty free tender unveiled last month and here for a similar traffic-related analysis pertaining to the San Francisco Airport tender.
