International tourism arrivals set to climb +3-4% in 2020 as “resilient” sector outpaces growth in global economy

INTERNATIONAL. International tourist arrivals reached 1.5 billion in 2019, a +4% rise year-on-year, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer. The organisation is forecasting a rise of +3% to +4% for 2020, which it said confirms tourism “as a leading and resilient economic sector, especially in view of current uncertainties”.

All regions saw a rise in international arrivals in 2019, which represented the tenth consecutive year of growth. However, uncertainty surrounding Brexit, the collapse of Thomas Cook, geopolitical and social tensions and the global economic slowdown all contributed to slower growth in the year, compared to the “exceptional rates” of 2017 and 2018. This slowdown affected mainly advanced economies and particularly Europe and Asia and the Pacific.

The big picture for tourism arrivals in 2019, with the Middle East the only major region to outperform the previous year (click to enlarge); below, a more detailed look at arrivals by sub-region

The latest UNWTO Confidence Index shows a cautious optimism about the year ahead: 47% of participants believe tourism will perform better and 43% at the same level of 2019. Major sporting events, including the Tokyo Olympics, and cultural events such as Expo 2020 Dubai are expected to have a positive impact on the sector.

The pattern of tourism arrivals across the year (click to enlarge)

The Middle East was the fastest-growing region for international tourism arrivals in 2019, growing at almost double the global average (+8%). Growth in Asia and the Pacific slowed but still showed above-average growth, with international arrivals up +5%.

Europe, where growth was also slower than in previous years (+4%) continues to lead in terms of arrivals numbers, welcoming 743 million international tourists last year (51% of the global market).

The Americas (+2%) showed a mixed picture as many island destinations in the Caribbean consolidated their recovery after the 2017 hurricanes while arrivals fell in South America due partly to social and political turmoil.

Limited data available for Africa (+4%) points to continued strong results in North Africa (+9%) while arrivals in Sub-Saharan Africa grew slower in 2019 (+1.5%), said UNWTO.

A snapshot of the ten-year average in tourism arrivals (click to enlarge)

Against a backdrop of global economic slowdown, tourism spending continued to grow, most notably among the world’s top ten spenders. France reported the strongest increase in international tourism expenditure among the world’s top ten outbound markets (+11%), while the US (+6%) led growth in absolute terms, aided by a strong dollar.

Zurab Pololikashvili: “In these times of uncertainty and volatility, tourism remains a reliable economic sector”

However, some large emerging markets such as Brazil and Saudi Arabia reported declines in tourism spending. China, the world’s top source market saw outbound trips increase by +14% in the first half of 2019, though expenditure fell -4%.

UNWTO Secretary-General Zurab Pololikashvili stressed that “in these times of uncertainty and volatility, tourism remains a reliable economic sector”. Against the backdrop of recently downgraded global economic perspectives, international trade tensions, social unrest and geopolitical uncertainty, “our sector keeps outpacing the world economy and calling upon us to not only grow but to grow better”, he added.

“The number of destinations earning US$1 billion or more from international tourism has almost doubled since 1998,” added Pololikashvili. “The challenge we face is to make sure the benefits are shared as widely as possible and that nobody is left behind. In 2020, UNWTO celebrates the Year of Tourism and Rural Development, and we hope to see our sector lead positive change in rural communities, creating jobs and opportunities, driving economic growth and preserving culture.”

The latest UNWTO projections for growth in 2020, worldwide and by region (click to enlarge)

UNWTO has also advocated the need for responsible growth, saying that the sector has a place at the heart of global development policies, with just ten years to fulfil the 2030 Agenda and its 17 Sustainable Development Goals.

The latest report emerges as the UN begins its 75th anniversary celebrations. During 2020, through the UN75 initiative the UN is carrying out the largest, most inclusive conversation on the role of global cooperation in building a better future, with tourism to be high on the agenda, it said.

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