Global air traffic demand up 6.5% in 2018, says International Air Transport Association

INTERNATIONAL. Global passenger traffic demand grew 6.5% last year compared to 2017, as measured in total revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs).

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) noted that while this represented a slowdown compared to the 2017 annual growth of 8%, it was another year of above-trend growth.

Click on image to enlarge.

Full year 2018 capacity climbed 6.1%, and load factor edged up 0.3 percentage points to a record 81.9%, exceeding the previous high set in 2017.

December traffic rose 5.3% year-on-year, the slowest pace since January 2018. IATA said the figure was a continuation of the trend that saw demand growth decelerate to an annualised rate of 5% over the course of the 2018 second half, compared to a 9% pace in the first half.

Despite an overall positive outlook, IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac said there were many issues creating uncertainty.

IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac commented: “2018 was another year of strong passenger demand, as aviation continued to support the global economy. We expect similar, if somewhat moderating performance in 2019.

“Nevertheless, slowing growth in the second half of 2018, coupled with concerns over issues including Brexit and US-China trade tensions, are creating some uncertainty to this positive outlook.”

International passenger traffic in 2018 climbed 6.3% compared to 2017, down from 8.6% annual growth the year before. All regions recorded year-on-year increases in traffic, led by Asia Pacific. However, North America and Africa were the only two regions to post stronger demand growth in 2018 compared to the prior year’s performance.

Traffic among Asia Pacific airlines was up 7.3%, driven by robust regional economic expansion and an increase in route options for travellers, IATA said. Although this was a slowdown from the 10.5% year-on-year growth recorded in 2017 versus 2016, it was strong enough to lead all the regions for a second consecutive year.

European carriers’ international traffic climbed 6.6% in 2018, down from 9.4% growth the year before. IATA noted that on a seasonally-adjusted basis, traffic growth has softened a bit in recent months, which it attributed in part to uncertainty over the economic backdrop and Brexit.

Air passenger volumes. Click on image to enlarge.

In the Middle East, traffic increased 4.2%. This was down from 6.9% growth in 2017 and was the second year in a row of moderating demand growth. “The deceleration in growth reflects the impact of policy measures and geopolitical tensions, including travel restrictions and the temporary ban on large portable electronic devices,” IATA said. Traffic actually declined 0.1% year-on-year in December, but this may reflect volatility in data according to the association.

North American airlines saw their fastest demand growth since 2011, with full-year traffic rising 5% compared to 2017. This was an increase from 4.7% annual growth in 2017. “Here too, however, demand growth slackened noticeably in the last two quarters,” IATA commented. “This may be owing to increasing concerns over the US economic outlook and trade tensions with China.”

International passenger traffic growth by airline region of registration. Click on image to enlarge.

Traffic among Latin American carriers climbed 6.9%, a slowdown compared to 8.8% annual growth in 2017. Traffic was affected by the mid-year general strikes in Brazil as well as by political and economic developments in some of the region’s other key economies, IATA noted.

African airlines saw 2018 traffic rise 6.5%, which was an increase compared to 6% annual growth in 2017. IATA said the strong performance took place in spite of the mixed economic backdrop of the continent’s largest economies, Nigeria and South Africa.

Domestic air travel climbed 7% last year, which was unchanged from the rate in 2017. All markets showed annual growth, led by India and China, which both posted double-digit annual increases.

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