ForwardKeys study reveals the impact of the Ukraine war on travel

INTERNATIONAL. Travel data analyst ForwardKeys has published a report highlighting the impact of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on travel.

The report noted that well-off Russians continued to travel while most remained at home, Turkey and the Middle East benefited from a rise in air traffic, and Europe-Asia Pacific flights now take longer and cost more.

Sanctions and the ban on direct flights between Russia and most of the EU have dramatically reduced Russia’s air connectivity with the rest of the world.

ForwardKeys said that the most surprising trend to emerge during the first ten months of the war was the extent to which wealthy Russians travelled to international destinations, while most Russians stayed at home.

It noted that from the start of the war on 24 February until the end of December, premium class tickets for Russian outbound travel surged by +10% compared to pre-pandemic levels. By comparison, economy class travel bookings dropped by -70%.

However, the trend changed from the start of 2023, with international travel declining in the first quarter of the year. As of 15 February, premium class flight bookings for the first quarter are currently -26% behind 2019 levels, with economy -66% behind.

Data shows that bookings to Thailand, UAE, Turkey and other destinations have increased sharply. Click to enlarge all charts.

The most popular destination for wealthy Russian travellers was Thailand, where premium class travel rose by +81% compared to 2019. It was followed by the UAE, up +108%, Turkey, up +41%, the Maldives, up +137% and Egypt, up +181% on the pre-pandemic period.

Another key finding of the study is that the Middle East region and Turkey, which permit Russian flights, saw an increase in air traffic.

The analyst said that a year after the war started, seat capacity between Russia and the Middle East was +27% greater than it was compared to the same period before the pandemic, with Turkey up +26%. By comparison, traffic fell -99% to the EU and UK, -92% to North America, -87% to Asia Pacific, -76% to Africa and -20% to non-EU Europe.

The study also revealed that in terms of all travel, the top destination for Russians during the past year was the Turkish resort of Antalya. Flights there from Moscow’s three major airports, Vnukovo, Domodedovo and Sheremetyevo, were up by +144%, +77% and +74% respectively, compared to pre-pandemic levels.

The next busiest route was between Istanbul and Moscow Sheremetyevo, up +73%, and Vnukovo, down -14%. The sixth busiest route was between St Petersburg and Antalya, up +49%. It was followed by Yerevan – Moscow Sheremetyevo, down -47%, Dubai – Moscow Sheremetyevo, up +228%, Tashkent – Moscow Domodedovo, up +84%, and Antalya – Ekaterinburg, down -31%.

ForwardKeys also said that another notable impact of the war in Ukraine has been the higher costs and longer flight times associated with travel between Europe and Asia Pacific. A year after the start of the war, average airfares between Europe and Asia Pacific increased by +20% compared to the 2019 pre-pandemic prices, and rose by +53% from 2022.

The data reveals that 37% of air traffic between the two continents now takes more than eight hours, up from 23% before the invasion. Among the worst-hit routes include those between Japan and South Korea in Asia Pacific and France, Germany, Scandinavia and the UK in Europe.

ForwardKeys VP for Insights Olivier Ponti commented: “The greatest impact on air travel to and from Russia since the invasion of Ukraine last February has been war-related sanctions, which have particularly benefited Turkey and the Middle East, as they have maintained direct flights to and from Russia.

“We expect Chinese airlines will be another winner as they are still flying through Russian air space; and that gives them a competitive advantage in flight times and fuel costs on routes between Europe and Asia Pacific. However, the most eye-opening feature is the premium class boom, which appears to illustrate a division in Russian society between the rich, who holidayed in style, while the less affluent stayed at home.” ✈

 

 

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