INTERNATIONAL. A new report from travel data analyst ForwardKeys has revealed some of the top travel trends of 2021, with the COVID-19 pandemic a continuing major influence on aviation.
A comparison of the world’s top destination cities, before the pandemic in 2019, and throughout 2021, illustrates a strong trend towards leisure travel in the recovery phase, said the analyst.
Several major cities (notably in Asia) have been pushed down or out of the top 20 rankings, whereas major leisure destinations, particularly for US holidaymakers, have climbed high.
While Dubai remains at the top of the list (measured by arrivals for the year to 23 November compared to a year earlier), the most notable rises include Miami, which leapt from 18th to fifth, Madrid from 16th to tenth and new into the list, Cancún (Mexico) at second. Other notable inclusions in the top 20 are Cairo (Egypt) at ninth, Punta Cana (Dominican Republic) at 12th, San Juan (Puerto Rico) at 13th, Lisbon at 14th, Athens at 15th, Mexico City at 16th, Palma Mallorca at 17th and Frankfurt at 20th.
The two highest risers, Cancún and Miami, are each key leisure destinations for US holidaymakers. Most of the new entrants lower down the list are also leading leisure destinations, popular with European holidaymakers.
Major pre-pandemic destination cities that have fallen out of the top 20 list include Bangkok, Tokyo, Seoul, Singapore, Hong Kong, Taipei, Shanghai, Jeddah, Los Angeles and Osaka. Note the Asian domination of that list.
International travel continues to stall
A review of worldwide travel in 2021, broken down by region, reveals the extent to which international travel continue to stall.
Overall, international air travel was just over a quarter (26%) of its pre-pandemic level, said ForwardKeys. The Asia Pacific region reached just 8% of previous levels while Europe achieved 30%, Africa and the Middle East 36% and the Americas 40%.
A comparison between the first and second halves shows that international travel more than doubled from 16% of pre-pandemic levels in H1 to 36% in H2. However, the recovery was uneven.
In Asia Pacific, flight arrivals grew from 5% of their 2019 level in H1 to 10% in H2. In Europe, they grew from 14% to 45%; in the Middle East & Africa, they grew from 24% to 48% and in the Americas, from 30% to 52%.
The stand-out destinations which best maintained their visitor numbers were Central America, particularly El Salvador and Belize, and the Caribbean – all holiday hotspots for US tourists.
Many of these managed to record visitation rates in excess of 60% of 2019 levels across the year. The same degree of travel resilience was true of around two dozen countries in Africa, noted ForwardKeys.
Travel to various Middle East destinations also exceeded the 60% benchmark in H2. Most notably, travel to Turkey (grouped within Middle East destinations by ForwardKeys in its analysis) climbed from 33% of pre-pandemic levels in H1 to 67% in H2. Travel to Egypt grew from 37% of pre-pandemic levels in H1 to 72% in H2. Dubai held its position as the top city destination while Doha overtook Dubai as a transit hub in 2021.
Dominant domestic travel
While many countries have imposes restrictions on international travel, domestic travel has remained resilient through 2021, led by Brazil, China, Russia and the USA.
In China domestic travel volumes returned to pre-pandemic levels as early as September 2020, falling back temporarily in January and again in August, owing to a resurgence in cases of COVID-19.
In Brazil, Russia, the US and China, domestic travel rose respectively to 148%, 128%, 87% and 76% of pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2021, compared to 50%, 28%, 39% and 1% for international travel.
Major European airlines struggle
Due to the trend towards domestic travel in large countries such as those noted above, airlines in those markets performed better than carriers whose business is geared towards short-haul international travel.
This is illustrated by an analysis of the top 20 airlines in 2021 compared to 2019. The major European carriers have all fallen down or out of the ranking. They have been replaced by airlines which have substantial business in China and the US domestic markets, and which have been better able to maintain capacity.
Ryanair and easyJet, the two largest European carriers, have fallen from fifth and eighth position respectively, to seventh and 16th. Lufthansa, British Airways and Air France, Europe’s largest legacy carriers, have fallen out of the top 20 list, as have Emirates and Air Canada. They have been replaced by Shenzhen, JetBlue, Spirit, Hainan and Xiamen.
Relative decline of long-haul travel
The latest data reveals a shift away from long-haul travel during the pandemic. In 2019 the ratio of intra-regional to extra-regional (long-haul) travel was 56%:44%, but in 2021, that had changed to 62% to 38%.
The pattern has also changed, with a greater proportion of people within Europe and the Americas travelling within their regions rather than long-haul.
The trend can be explained by the effective closure of one region of the world, Asia Pacific; the increased cost and difficulty of travelling long-haul during the pandemic and frequently changing pandemic travel regulations, which disproportionately deter people from booking long-haul travel.
Doha and Amsterdam take hub airport share
Doha led Dubai for much of 2021, becoming the preeminent hub airport in the Middle East, connecting traffic between South Asia, Middle East, North America and Sub-Saharan Africa, said ForwardKeys.
In Europe, Amsterdam closed the gap on Frankfurt for intra-European transits and connections with North America.
Analysis of monthly traffic in 2021 shows that Amsterdam briefly overtook Frankfurt in September and October but fell back in November. In the same month, Dubai recovered its lead over Doha for the first time since February.
Pre-pandemic, the top ten list of global hub airports was headed by Dubai with 7.7% market share of intercontinental flight connections. It was followed by Frankfurt, Amsterdam, Doha, Istanbul, Paris, Hong Kong, Munich, London and Abu Dhabi.
In 2021, this list was headed by Amsterdam, with 8.3% share of intercontinental flight connections. Amsterdam is now followed by Frankfurt at 8.2%, Istanbul 6.8%, Doha 6.7%, Dubai 5.9%, Paris 5%, Panama City 3.5%, Addis Ababa 3.1%, Munich 2.9% and Madrid 2.4%.
Threat from new virus variants
A chart plotting the recovery in air travel shows relatively steady growth from the first quarter of 2021, when traffic was less than 20% of 2019 levels, to the fourth quarter, when it had climbed to over 50%.
However, there were two setbacks to the overall trend, ForwardKeys data shows. The first began during the week of 12 March, when the growth in weekly bookings turned from +11% to -10%, as the Delta variant began to sweep around the world. The second began in the last week of October, when weekly bookings reached their highest point, 64% of same week in 2019. Bookings have been slowing down ever since. In late November, they were down to 54% of 2019 levels, which was closely correlated with a fresh rise in COVID-19 cases since late October.
ForwardKeys said: “It is now likely that the emergence of the new Omicron variant, and the travel restrictions introduced in response, will inhibit demand for last-minute travel over the Christmas period.”
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti said: “2021 has definitely been a year of travel recovery. But that recovery has been bumpy and patchy, with many established destinations displaced and several tourism-dependent destinations making valiant efforts to retain the patronage of leisure travellers.
“It has also been a tug of war between a strong pent-up demand to travel on the one hand and travel restrictions, imposed by governments to inhibit to the spread of COVID-19 on the other.”
