ForwardKeys/Dragon Trail webinar: China outbound travel surges for Lunar New Year; Peak 2023 travel choices outlined

CHINA. China’s recent decision to end its dynamic zero-COVID policy and easing of travel restrictions has triggered a surge in flight bookings. That’s according to the latest data released today by travel analyst ForwardKeys in a joint seminar staged alongside China marketing solutions firm Dragon Trail International.

ForwardKeys revealed that China’s intra-regional neighbours in Asia will reap the most significant benefits, and also predicted that Chinese international flight demand will peak this summer.

Graph showing how the easing of COVID controls led to a rapid rise in flight bookings (click to enlarge)

The data was released along with Dragon Trail’s latest Chinese Traveler Sentiment Report, which highlighted that 60% of its survey respondents said they wanted to travel outside Mainland China in 2023.

Following China’s easing of COVID controls, there was a sharp upswing in bookings for domestic flights, ForwardKeys’ data showed. Sanya was the destination showing the fastest recovery for flight bookings, exceeding pre-pandemic numbers (+2%) for the period covering 7 December-10 January (see table below).

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It was followed by Chengdu (92% of pre-pandemic levels) and the Hainan capital Haikou (88%) as the most robust China domestic destinations across this period.

During today’s webinar, ForwardKeys China Market Analyst Nan Dai also revealed that forward Chinese flight bookings for the Chinese New Year holiday period are currently -47% behind pre-pandemic levels but already +30% ahead of last year.

In discussion during today’s webinar are, clockwise from top left, Dragon Trail International Director of Marketing and Communications Sienna Parulis-Cook; ForwardKeys China Market Analyst Nan Dai; and Dragon Trail Market Research Analyst Yelinuer Kadeerbieke

In terms of outbound travel, Southeast Asian destinations are most likely to benefit first from the return of Chinese tourists, Dai said. This assertion was backed up by flight data generated since the announcement of the relaxation in COVID and travel restrictions.

In the 14-day period 26 December-8 January, Thailand (+92%) was the most popular Chinese consumer flight choice among major destinations, compared to the prior 14-day period. Thailand was followed by Cambodia, Macau, Hong Kong, Indonesia and the UAE (see table below).

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“All these destinations have relaxed rules for Chinese travellers,” Dai observed. “Arrivals from China will not be required to provide test results for COVID-19. Visa waiver to Indonesia, visa-on-arrival to Thailand, Cambodia, and the UAE – all make it even easier to travel.”

However, the lack of flight capacity and high fares could be the bottleneck for China’s outbound travel recovery in Q1, Dai speculated. “Current scheduled international flight capacity in Q1 is only at 21% of 2019’s level. Owing to approval requirements for traffic rights and airport slots, it will be difficult for airlines to gear back up very quickly.

Flights booked to top destinations for Chinese New Year as of 10 January, measured against 2019 (click to enlarge)

“We can expect a more significant increase when airlines schedule for the next summer season starting from the 26th of March.”

Presenting findings from the Chinese Traveler Sentiment Report, Dragon Trail Market Research Analyst Yelinuer Kadeerbieke backed up this view. “Our survey results show that while recovery will start gradually in the first six months of 2023, it’s clear that outbound travel will start to pick up in the second half of the year.

Regional figures measured against 2019 for booked international departures from China (click to enlarge)

“42% said they would travel outbound in July and August, with 32% planning an autumn Golden Week getaway outside Mainland China.”

Here are some of the key takeaways from the report:

Chinese travellers are ready to go

More than 60% of survey respondents said they wanted to travel outside Mainland China in 2023. This group expressed high expectations about the freedom of cross-border travel this year. Survey respondents said they were excited to relax, as well as to experience scenery, food, culture, and shopping overseas.

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Hong Kong, Macau and Thailand are the most popular destinations

The top seven outbound destinations that Chinese consumers plan to travel to in 2023 are all in Asia. Hong Kong leads the way, chosen by more than 20% of respondents. With 11.1%, Thailand is by far the most popular foreign country (see table below).

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Expect market recovery to really get going in summer

While nearly 40% of respondents said they planned to travel outbound in the first six months of 2023, it’s clear that recovery will really start to pick up in the second half of the year. 42% said they would travel outbound in July and August, with 32% planning an autumn Golden Week getaway outside Mainland China.

COVID will have a negative impact

Among the 39.6% of survey respondents who said they will not travel outside of Mainland China in 2023, the pandemic was the leading reason. 54.9% cited financial constraints related to COVID, and more than half worried about risks to their own health (54.2%) and the health of their families (52%). The inconvenience of applying for travel documents (33.9%), busy schedules at work (37.7%) and destination safety (30.5%) also factored into travellers’ decisions to stay at home (see table below).

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Family travel will dominate

With nearly half (48%) of consumers choosing to travel with family, travel destinations and products that cater and appeal to married couples, families with children, and families travelling with elderly parents will best meet market demands. From product design to service and advertising, keeping the family traveller in mind will help stand out in 2023.

Click the cover image to download a free copy of the Dragon Trail International report

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