‘Fastest pace for 5 years’: Global passenger traffic accelerates +9.6% in January

INTERNATIONAL. Industry-wide passenger traffic grew by +9.6% year-on-year in January – its fastest pace since April 2011, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

The association said the jump in demand reflected a combination of stimulus from lower airfares and stronger economic conditions, with the Indian and Chinese markets driving growth.

IATA noted January’s traffic surge represented the strongest start to the year since 2005, although it cautioned that the shifting timing of Chinese New Year can be a complicating factor in comparisons at this time of year.

Demand is measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs).

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The Middle East (+13.5%) and Asia Pacific (+14.3%) regions both posted double-digit annual growth rates. North American airlines were described as the laggard for the fourth consecutive month (+3.4%), with slower traffic growth attributed to softer demand on UK-US routes.

IATA’s report indicated that industry-wide RPKs have grown at an annualised pace of nearly 15% over the past three months, seemingly reflecting a return in passenger confidence.

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IATA Director General and CEO Alexandre de Juniac remarked: “2017 is off to a very strong start, with demand at levels not seen since 2011.

“This is supported by the upturn in the global economic cycle and a return to a more normal environment after the terrorism and political ‘shock’ events seen in early 2016.”

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IATA said that European carriers’ international traffic climbed by +8.3% year on year in January against the backdrop of moderate momentum in the Eurozone economy. Latin American airlines’ traffic jumped by +8.2%, with robust international demand within South America offsetting weaker demand to North America.

Traffic for African airlines rose by +5.6%, reflecting a recovery on key routes to/from Europe, despite continuing weakness in South Africa and Nigeria.

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Political impact

As noted, recent political ‘shock’ events – which include but are not limited to the UK’s vote to leave the EU and the result of the 2016 US Presidential Election – have affected air travel traffic.

Political uncertainty can also have a major impact on the stability of nations’ economies and IATA suggested “the strength of the economic cycle will play an important role in driving the pace of global passenger growth in 2017”.

“Governments have a responsibility to secure their borders. They must also preserve the enormous economic and social benefits provided by borders that are open to trade and travel.”

Earlier this week US President Donald Trump issued the latest in a long line of executive orders banning travel into the US from certain Muslim-majority nations. So far, the orders have been rejected by various courts across the US, and already his latest attempt to limit travel into the country has been met with opposition from the state of Hawaii.

Offering a notice to all country leaders, de Juniac said: “Aviation is the business of freedom. Air travel liberates people to lead better lives and creates greater economic opportunity for all by bringing people closer to trade and markets.

“Governments have a responsibility to secure their borders. They must also preserve the enormous economic and social benefits provided by borders that are open to trade and travel.”

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