COVID-19 Update: Just one new case across Greater China; TFWA vows to make Cannes show “an example in solidarity”; WHO warns about mass gatherings

We start each day’s update with this message from DFS Group when the retailer reopened its stores in Macau on 20 February after a 13-day closure.

Published in Chinese, it translates as:

No winter can’t be passed
No spring will not come

For updates post 9 May click here

9 May

International

“I think what we’re seeing is a careful, measured return to those kind of normal activities of work and school, especially if they’re done with density reduction, physical distancing and hygiene in place seem to be very prudent and practical. Where we’re going to maybe have to accept a little bit more time is going to be around mass gatherings – things like large-scale gatherings and concerts.”  World Health Organization Executive Director Dr. Mike Ryan’s words to a media briefing on Friday underlined the challenges faced by the world at large and particularly travel-related sectors.

“This is the time when people gather en mass, we go to big events, and it’s going to be much more difficult to make those perfectly safe”

[Click on the icon to watch Dr Mike Ryan via The Guardian’s YouTube Channel]

“We’re coming into the summertime in Europe, and North America and other places in Asia. And this is the time when people gather en mass, we go to big events, and it’s going to be much more difficult to make those perfectly safe. There is a path out, but we must remain ever vigilant. And we may have to have a significant alteration to our lifestyles until we get to a point where we have an effective vaccine and effective treatments.

“This is a big challenge. And we’re not through it yet in many countries. And as some countries come out of lockdown, and come out of these measures, they can offer hope to communities who are entering into epidemic situations and [who can] learn lessons from what everyone has done, transfer resources, and help other countries to fight the fight they have to fight.

“In the end of this… through solidarity we will win the fight and nobody is safe until everybody is safe.”

Greater China

Remarkable statistics from the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, which has maintained impressive efficiency and transparency in its reporting since the early days of the COVID-19 outbreak. While the virus numbers soar in the west and elsewhere in Asia, the numbers across Greater China continue to offer particular cause for optimism – especially for the travel retail sector. Just one case across the vast Chinese Mainland; none in Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan. Click to enlarge.
Source: China Daily; National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China figures show (Click to enlarge)
Source: China Daily

South Korea

While the overall new case numbers remain low, the uptick back into double digits (12 yesterday, 18 today) will be a big concern for the authorities, especially as 12 of the new cases were reported in the capital, Seoul. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International

The global death toll nears 275,00 (at this point yesterday it was approaching 270,000) while total cases pass 3.93 million (3.84 million). Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

US

The COVID-19 crisis made its impact felt at Orlando International Airport (MCO) in March with a 47% year-on-year drop in traffic. International traffic declined -53.61% to 302,867 while domestic volume fell -46.47% to 2,205,382.

8 May

France/International

TFWA continues to insist it will hold its annual World Exhibition and Conference (28 September-2 October) despite the COVID-19 crisis. In an Instagram post yesterday, the association said:  “In these challenging times, we are grateful for our Cannes partners’ dedication, faith and hard work

“Together, we’ll make the #tfwa World Exhibition & Conference 2020 edition an example in solidarity!”

Estonia

Cruise ferry group and leading maritime travel retailer Tallink said that passenger traffic fell by almost -96% year-on-year in April, as operations ceased on many of its routes and as governments in the Nordic region closed their borders.

The group revealed Q1 results that showed a -15.6% fall in shop and restaurant sales to €86.9 million, with overall revenue down by -13.4%. The company posted a net loss of €30.2 million (-19.6%) in the quarter.

As CEO Paavo Nõgene noted though, the modest decline in business in Q1 paints a falsely positive picture of the impact of COVID-19. Instead, he said, “we need to look at these results already from the pre-coronavirus and post-coronavirus perspective, the results pre-state of emergency and post-state of emergency, as the two paint a very different picture of our operations and results”.

Full story here.

Australia

The Sydney Morning Herald reports on Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison’s three-point plan to reopen the country. Click to enlarge and here for original article.

International

The global death toll nears 270,000 while total cases pass 3.8 million. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

South Korea

The Republic sees a small spike in new cases back into double digits, underlining the need for continued caution. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

Greater China

The numbers that once caused so much anxiety and now generate so much hope. Just one new case is reported in Mainland China. Continued encouraging news out of Greater China as the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China figures show. Click to enlarge.

7 May

International

The UN World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO) has reported that international tourism could fall by -60% and up to -80% in 2020 compared to 2019, under a worst case scenario.

In the first quarter of 2020 alone, the COVID-19 global health crisis has caused a -22% slump in international tourist arrivals, according to the latest UNWTO World Tourism Barometer.

For the full story, click here.

Germany

Passenger traffic at Berlin Schönefeld and Berlin Tegel airports hit just 27,593 in April, down by -99% year-on-year across the two locations. Some 22,079 passengers flew from Tegel and 5,541 from Schönefeld.

Berlin’s airports served 5,594,818 passengers in the first four months of this year, -49.1% fewer than in the same period last year.

Flughafen Berlin Brandenburg Chief Executive Officer Prof. Dr.-Ing. Engelbert Lütke Daldrup said: “The situation in international air travel remains very serious. Passenger numbers have already dropped by half since the beginning of the year in comparison to this time last year. Even though air traffic almost came to a standstill in April, the capital region still needs to remain accessible via air. With persistently low traffic figures, a concentration of air traffic at the Schönefeld site [with Tegel likely to close soon -Ed] is unavoidable.”

Malaysia

Malaysia Airports has made the wearing of face masks compulsory within its terminals, introduced temperature screening and stopped entry for non-travellers, among measures to halt the transmission of COVID-19.

The airports company issued guidelines this week as AirAsia and other carriers resume domestic air services.

For more, see our column on travel’s new world here.

South Korea

The flood of new COVID-19 cases from two months ago in South Korea has eased to a trickle. Coupled with the dramatically improved situation in China (see below), hopes are rising that travel between the two countries, so key to travel retail, will normalise in the short term. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)
Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

Greater China

Continued encouraging news out of Greater China as the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China figures show. Click to enlarge.

International

The global death toll surges towards 264,000 while total cases will hit 4 million in coming days. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

6 May

UK

Transport for London (TfL) has announced that from this Saturday, 9 May, all flights to and from Heathrow Airport will operate from terminals 2 and 5 only, until further notice.

It said that during this time, London Underground’s Piccadilly line and TfL Rail services will not operate to, or from, their Terminal 4 stations, which will be closed.

Piccadilly line trains will serve Heathrow T1, T2, T3 and T5 stations, and TfL Rail trains will serve Heathrow T2, T3 and T5 stations.

The transport authority said the number of people using tube and rail services has fallen dramatically by around -95% and the number of people using buses by around -85%. It added that this is important to stop the spread of coronavirus.

Germany

Frankfurt Airport owner Fraport has said it may take “quite a few years” to reach traffic levels achieved in 2019, given the severe impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

In the first three months of 2020, Fraport’s net profit went into negative territory (-€35.7 million) for the first time since the group IPO in 2001.

Speaking as Fraport released quarterly results today, Executive Board Chairman Dr. Stefan Schulte said: “We’re experiencing global aviation’s worst-ever crisis. Despite timely and comprehensive action to reduce costs, the situation is severely impacting our company. It isn’t possible at this time to make an accurate forecast for the year as a whole, since we don’t yet know how long the travel restrictions will remain in place or how far the global economy is likely to contract. One thing is certain, however: the post-pandemic aviation industry won’t be the same. But we’re getting our airport and company ready to face the challenges.”

For the full story, click here.

UK

Virgin Atlantic is shedding 3,150 jobs and moving its flight programme from London Gatwick Airport to London Heathrow in its latest cost-cutting response to the COVID-19 pandemic.

Full story here.

South Korea

Big news from South Korea as just three new cases are reported; Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)
An important chart that shows the initial sharp rise and subsequent fall in imported cases. They are now the prime concern for the Korean authorities, who are likely to be highly selective by nationality and destination in the gradual restoration of inbound (and outbound by Koreans) travel

International

Folly writ large: And so the UK, whose government for so long resisted any form of social distancing measures, assumes the unwanted status of having the world’s second-highest COVID-19 death tally. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

Greater China

Just two cases across Greater China, both on the Mainland. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

5 May

Finland/Estonia

Finland’s government has approved plans to begin limited inbound transport from the Schengen Area from 14 May, for workers and those with “unavoidable reasons for travel”.

In response, cruise ferry company Tallink has said it will reopen ticket sales from today and its shuttle vessel Star will return to the Tallinn-Helsinki route for peak weekend departures only from 15 May.

Passenger traffic on ferries to Finland was suspended on 11 April at the request of the Finnish government to help prevent the spread of the coronavirus. Tourist travel to Finland is still not permitted and decisions to expand the category of inbound traveller permitted will be made as the pandemic situation improves.

Tallink Grupp has agreed to impose maximum capacity levels in its shops and restaurants (Megastar pictured)

Tallink Grupp CEO Paavo Nõgene said: “We welcome the Finnish government’s decision, which will allow many Estonians working in Finland to return to work or to their families from next week.”

He added: “It is clear that the numbers of passengers will not be the same as they were before the crisis and not all our vessels will return to all the routes straight away. The Finnish government’s decision is a small step forward and here at Tallink we will of course synchronise our steps with those of our governments.”

Measures implemented onboard Tallink’s vessels and at the Port of Tallinn to ensure the safety of employees and passengers include:

  • Disinfectant stations in place.
  • More thorough and frequent cleaning and disinfecting of surfaces onboard vessels and in terminals.
  • All passenger vessels will only take a maximum of half of the total vessel capacity on board for any departure to ensure enough space is provided on board to keep passengers 2m apart from each other.
  • To disperse passengers on board and in terminals and galleries, distance markers will be created on the floors and signage put on the walls;
  • In shops and catering areas, maximum capacity levels have been established.
  • In F&B areas personnel will wear face masks during the initial restoration of services.

France

Lagardère Travel Retail Chairman & CEO Dag Rasmussen has said that the company is aiming to move to variable-only rents for the rest of the year, adding that most airport partners are open to adapting contract structures amid the COVID-19 crisis.

Rasmussen said: “All rents should be variable this year and all our teams are working on this plan with each and every landlord. The idea is that Minimum Annual Guarantees (MAGs) are there to protect landlords against bad operators. It’s not supposed to be life insurance for whatever happens. It’s our position that MAGs cannot apply in this situation.

“We have had a good success rate so far; most airports are reasonable so we are optimistic. In our flow-through [plan] there is no fixed rent this year.”

For more, click here.

Control, exerted not just by the state but by the people in the form of self-control – the latter a key point overlooked by many western media and politicians too preoccupied with criticising and blaming China – has had a hugely impressive effect in curbing the spread

Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

Instead of simply publishing our regular daily table, these numbers, courtesy of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, really do warrant additional commentary.

On 4 May, 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland as well as the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps reported just one new confirmed infection (an imported case in Shanghai municipality), no new suspected infections, and no deaths. 87 patients were released from hospital after being cured. 710 people who had had close contact with infected patients were freed from medical observation. Serious cases decreased by 4.

Combined with the very low single-digit Hong Kong, Macau (clear for a long time now) and Taiwan numbers quoted by the Commission, the results represent extraordinary progress against a disease that until so recently was raging seemingly out of control in Hubei province and particularly its capital Wuhan. But control, exerted not just by the state but by the people in the form of self-control – the latter a key point overlooked by many western media and politicians too preoccupied with criticising and blaming China – has had a hugely impressive effect in curbing the spread.

As of 24:00 on 4 May, 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland as well as the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps had reported 1,676 cases of imported confirmed infections and no deaths. In all, 1,351 patients had been cured and discharged from hospital. To show that the numbers are fully transparent, the National Health Commission confirmed that there are still 325 confirmed cases (including 5 in serious condition) and 2 suspected cases.

As of 24:00 on 4 May, the National Health Commission had received reports of 82,881 confirmed cases and 4,633 deaths in 31 provincial-level regions on the Chinese mainland and the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps. A total of 77,853 patients had been cured and discharged from hospital. So far, 735,240 people have been identified as having had close contact with infected patients. 7,152 are now under medical observation.

South Korea

Just three cases were reported in the Republic yesterday, two of them identified via airport screening. In other words just one indigenous case. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International… this is now….

Global spread: The shocking US death toll leaves Italy and the fast-rising UK in its wake. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

… and this was then

And now the same heatmap from just two months ago, which portray a tale of folly in countries such as the UK and US. China and South Korea were then the worst-affected countries in total case terms, with China heading the death toll. Today, China stands 11th on both counts and South Korea 36th and 39th, respectively. (Source: Johns Hopkins University, click to enlarge)

4 May

International

The Duty Free World Council (DFWC) is calling for industry input to a global Recovery Protocol for travel retail worldwide, following the impact of the COVID-19 crisis.

In a statement, the DFWC said: “The aviation and maritime sectors have recognised the need for an agreed global approach to re-opening for business. The same will be true if the duty and tax free industry is to re-open for business with the trust of governments, landlords and customers.

“The Duty Free World Council has started work on developing a framework protocol, to which it invites businesses to contribute their thoughts in order to develop as quickly as possible a global consensus.”

Full story here.

South Korea

Just eight cases were reported in the Republic yesterday, four of them identified via airport screening. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

North America

The Airport Restaurant & Retail Association (ARRA) has illustrated the depth of the sales decline among North American airport concessionaires, and reiterated its urgent call for financial support, led by rent suspension, from airport partners.

ARRA estimated that March concession sales in the US fell by more than -60% to US$340 million, with the closure of larger restaurants, limited alcohol sales and reduced speciality retail sales. In April, this figure is estimated to have fallen to just US$38 million, compared to US$825 million a year earlier.

The chart, based on sales figures from ARRA members, illustrates the depth of the industry crisis in North America

ARRA Executive Director Rob Wigington said: “There is no way for our businesses to survive if we are forced to pay rent without passengers, and thus, sales.”

Click here for the full story.

International

The death toll continues to surge in the UK, fast approaching Italy in total losses. Meanwhile the disease rages in the US, Russia and many countries around the globe. Selected Asia Pacific countries, first into the crisis and evidently first out of it, offer most hope of a slow and measured recovery for the travel sector. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

South Korea

Latest Korea Tourism Organization figures highlight the dramatic impact of the near shutdown of passenger traffic into and out of the country. Chinese visitor numbers fell -96.6% year-on-year in March to just 16,595. Japanese arrivals slumped -97.8% to 8,347. Total arrivals by all nationalities fell -94.6%

The situation was no brighter for departing Koreans with a -93.9% fall.

Note the collapse of Chinese visitor numbers at the foot of the table. Source: Korea Tourism Organization (click to enlarge)
The outbound Korean travel market has all but disappeared. Source: Korea Tourism Organization, click to enlarge.

Greater China

Another single-digit new case count in Mainland China, the sixth in eight days. No new infections in Hong Kong, or in Macau (as has been the situation for some time). Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

The Chinese population has been on the move during the five-day holiday period that started on Friday. China Daily quoted a Ministry of Transport spokesman saying an expected 117 million trips, mostly short-distance, will be made during the period.

The mass movement is seen as an important testing ground of the apparent near eradication of the virus. China Daily reported that a meeting presided over by Premier Li Keqiang on 30 April called for more detailed epidemic containment measures for transport, hotels and tourist attractions.

The leading group of the Communist Party of China Central Committee stressed there was no room for complacency even though the pandemic has been brought under control in the country.

Individuals must follow personal protection protocols and efforts must be made to prevent risks arising from gatherings of tourists, the group said. It also warned against concealing, under reporting or delays in reporting new infections, demanding that information be made public in an open and transparent manner.

(Above and below) These infographics, courtesy of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China underline how well China has utilised the power of communication to successfully curb the outbreak

3 May

Greater China

A second consecutive red-letter (and red-number) day in Mainland China with just two new cases reported and no deaths. No new infections in Hong Kong. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Back to (low) double digits in South Korea for new infections, five of them identified through airport screening. The importation of COVID-19 is now the biggest concern for authorities in the Republic, as in China. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)
The latest global COVID-19 case and death toll chart. China and South Korea, the two countries hardest hit at the start of the outbreak, now sit 11th and 37th respectively in the total infection rankings. (Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University).

2 May

US

Starting Monday, 4 May, all members of the public and personnel at Mineta San Jose International Airport will be required to wear a face covering inside airport buildings.

Acceptable face coverings include a scarf or bandana; a neck gaiter; a homemade covering made from a T-shirt, sweatshirt, or towel, held on with rubber bands or other fasteners; or a non-medical grade mask. Face coverings should allow the wearer to breathe comfortably through the nose and not have to adjust it frequently, so as to avoid touching the face.

“Our top priority is protecting the health and safety of SJC employees and travelers,” said John Aitken, SJC Director of Aviation. “Requiring face coverings is the latest measure in our ongoing commitment to maintain a healthy, safe and clean environment now and when non-essential travel resumes in the future.”

The new face covering requirement is in addition to the County’s existing protocols for social distancing and washing hands frequently. SJC will display signage throughout the terminals and at all public entry points reminding all airport users of the new face covering requirement.

“Many of the airlines serving SJC have announced that face coverings will be required for all travellers. Our intent with instituting this new requirement is primarily to protect travellers and employees, but also to align airport and airline policies for a more seamless customer experience,” Aitken added.

Greater China

What remarkable figures these are. Just one new case across Mainland China; the numbers out of Hong Kong (just two new infections), Macau and Taiwan also positive. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)
An editorial in the excellent Chinese state media Global Times reports how Chinese authorities have urged people to remain vigilant about COVID-19 while travelling during the May Golden Week holidays. Tourists are being urged to make reservations before visiting tourist sites, transparently report their health information, have their body temperatures checked and maintain distance from others.

South Korea

Only six new cases in the Republic yesterday, three of them identified through airport screening. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)
Interesting analysis by Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention of COVID-19 distribution by gender and age group. Click to enlarge.

International

The latest global COVID-19 case and death toll chart. Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University

1 May

Europe

Leading low-cost carrier Ryanair said it expects the recovery of passenger demand and pricing (to 2019 levels) to take at least two years, until Summer 2022 at the earliest.

The airline expects to operate less than 1% of its scheduled programme in April, May and June, its first financial quarter. Q1 traffic of less than 150,000 passengers will be -99.5% behind the Q1 budget of 42.4 million, it said. While some return to flight services is expected in the second (July-September) quarter, Ryanair expects to carry no more than 50% of its original traffic target of 44.6 million in Q2.

For the full year ended March 2021, Ryanair now expects to carry less than 100 million passengers, more than -35% below its original 154 million target. The group expects to report a net loss of over €100 million in Q1, with further losses in Q2 (the peak summer period).

The company said it “shortly notify their trade unions about its restructuring and job loss programme, which will commence from July 2020. These plans will be subject to consultation but will affect all Ryanair airlines, and may result in the loss of up to 3,000 mainly pilot and cabin crew jobs, unpaid leave, and pay cuts of up to -20%, and the closure of a number of aircraft bases across Europe until traffic recovers.”

UK

London Heathrow Airport today reported first-quarter results to 31 March, with retail revenue declining by -15% year-on-year. This was driven by a -18.3% fall in passenger traffic to 14.6 million; the airport company said April figures would be around -97% down.

For the full story, click here.

Asia Pacific

Pacific Asia Travel Association (PATA) has said that international visitor arrivals into and across Asia Pacific are likely to fall -32% year-on-year in 2020, given the severe impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The volume of arrivals is now expected to hit fewer than 500 million this year, from over 700 million in 2019. That would take visitor volumes back to levels last seen in 2012.

Full story here.

South Korea

Another encouraging day in South Korea as only nine new cases are reported. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

Greater China

Once again no new cases nor deaths in Hong Kong, Macau or Taiwan and only six home-grown cases in Mainland China. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

30 April

International

Airports Council International (ACI) World and the International Air Transport Association (IATA) have shown solidarity in a joint call for governments to quickly grant financial relief to assist airports and airlines during the COVID-19 crisis. ACI is the voice of airports worldwide, while IATA represents the airline community.

Full story here.

France

Lagardère Group today reported on the dramatic impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and the shutdown of air travel in many markets on its business, notably its travel retail arm.

Lagardère Travel Retail revenue reached €804 million in Q1 2020, down by -13.5% year-on-year on a consolidated basis and -18.0% on a like-for-like basis.

Revenue slipped by -1.3% in January and February before falling -54% in March. Parent Lagardère Group said it expects travel retail division revenue to fall by -90% year-on-year in April.

Click here for the full story.

Greater China

Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

The red numbers from 29 April, courtesy of the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China, tell their own deeply encouraging story. No new cases in Hubei province, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. No ‘home-grown’ cases across the vast Chinese Mainland. Just four cases across the whole PRC, all imported. While the authorities remain on red alert for any renewed wave (imported cases now being the great fear), these numbers are hugely important in both a Chinese and global context.

South Korea

Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and PreventionClick to enlarge

The key numbers in this chart, courtesy of Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, tell an amazing story. Just four new cases (the lowest figure since 18 February) across the entire Republic of Korea, all identified through airport screening. None in the country’s two biggest cities Seoul (the hub of travel retail activity) or Busan. None in number three, Incheon and even a zero count in Daegu, South Korea’s fourth-biggest city and the epicentre of the original outbreak.

International

The latest global COVID-19 case and death toll chart. Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University
The pace of a pandemic. This is how the situation looked globally just one month ago.

29 April

Malaysia

AirAsia’s passenger volume declined by -25% during the first quarter to 1,141,713. The company posted a passenger load factor of 74% for the three-month period, a fall of -9% year-on-year.

As part of the airline’s COVID-19 mitigation strategy, it has reduced flight frequency around its network and temporarily suspended certain routes. 

UK

Fewer than 10,000 travellers (9,906) entered the UK last Friday amid sharply falling traffic levels across all channels in recent weeks.

Speaking to the Home Affairs Select Committee in Parliament today (as reported by The Guardian), Home Secretary Priti Patel said that airport passenger traffic fell by -99% year-on-year between 16 and 22 April. Maritime traffic was down by -88.7% in the same period and rail travel by -94%.

International

MSC Cruises today said it was extending the suspension of all cruise departures fleet-wide until 10 July. It had previously said that all ships would stop sailing until 29 May.

MSC Cruises is offering guests a Future Cruise Credit where they have the opportunity to transfer the full amount paid for their cancelled cruise to a future cruise of their choice – on any ship, for any itinerary — through to the end of 2021.

It has also extended its Flexible Cruise Programme which allows guests who are already booked on an MSC Cruises ship, either directly or through a travel agent, to reschedule their cruise to a future departure date through to 31 December 2021.

International

The International Air Transport Association (IATA) declared it a “disastrous month for aviation” as it reported global passenger traffic results for March 2020. They reveal that demand (measured in total revenue passenger kilometres/RPKs) fell -52.9% in comparison to the same month last year as governments moved to slow the spread of COVID-19.

In seasonally adjusted terms, global passenger volumes fell to levels most recently seen in 2006.

Full story here.

China

In a major boost to the offshore business, China Duty Free Group (CDFG) has just introduced a new scheme allowing Mainland visitors to Hainan to spend any of their unspent RMB30,000 (US$4,240) annual allowance online for up to 180 days once they arrive back – and have the goods couriered to their home.

A CDFG spokesperson told The Moodie Davitt Report: “Travellers could not go shopping in CDFG stores [on Hainan Island] in the middle of the COVID-19 outbreak. After getting the government’s approvement as well as support of suppliers, CDFG has launched the Hainan offshore replenishment online service, which aims to serve 16-years old-plus Chinese citizens who leave the island within 180 days. The replenishment online service uses the offshore duty free personal yearly quota.”

For more on this crucial boost to travel retail, click here.

Singapore

Omnichannel retailer KrisShop.com has responded to the government’s recently extended national lockdown to 1 June by launching KrisShop@Home, its latest concept store curated with items to enhance #stayhome moments.

Full story here.

South Korea

Still more good news from South Korea as just nine new cases are reported, three through airport screening and none in Seoul. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International

Preliminary traffic figures released today by the Association of Asia Pacific Airlines (AAPA) showed that international air passenger plummeted in March as COVID-19 infections spread to many countries.

Asia Pacific airlines carried a combined total of just 8.8 million international passengers in March, a -72.9% decline year-on-year. Demand in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK) fell by -70.7%, whilst available seat capacity fell by -55.6% year-on-year. This led to a 27.4 percentage point plunge in the average international passenger load factor to 52.9% in March.

The number of countries imposing travel restrictions globally more than doubled in March, which led to sharp falls in passenger demand, forcing drastic cutbacks in airline operating schedules and the grounding of thousands of aircraft, AAPA said.

AAPA Director General Subhas Menon, said, “Overall, Asian carriers saw a -38% decline in the number of international passengers carried to a combined total of 59 million in the first quarter of the year.

“The eventual recovery in travel demand is expected to be slow and sporadic. The industry cannot stay grounded for too long as it would be to the detriment of not only aviation but also global trade, tourism and the wider economy. Governments need to come together to agree on a harmonised mitigation framework, that is supported by public health professionals and all industry stakeholders, to restart aviation without too much delay.”

Greater China

 

Today’s red numbers tell several stories within a story. The zero count in Hubei province, whose capital Wuhan was the original COVID-19 epicentre, marks 25 straight days of no new cases, an extraordinary result given how badly the city and province were affected until so recently.

The Hong Kong, Taiwan and Macau case and death tolls (all zero counts) are hugely encouraging. But take a look at the number of new imported cases in China. At 22, that is still a low tally but it’s an important indicator as to why the Chinese authorities rightly continue to maintain rigid controls and apply rigorous checks at the country’s borders, both at airports and land crossings.

International

The latest global COVID-19 case and death toll chart. Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to a constantly updated country-by-country count. Source: Johns Hopkins University

Over 3.1 million cases reported worldwide, and more than 217,000 deaths. The US has become the new epicentre of the disease and the UK, whose government – like that of its transatlantic counterpart – was initially so relaxed about the outbreak, continues to see fast-rising new case and death numbers.

28 April

Uruguay

“Time will mark the end of this [crisis] one day. We must take care of one another now. It’s about you. It’s your choice. This is an opportunity to help someone around you. It’s a moment as a human being to be closer to each other.”

The encouraging, inspirational words of Dr Roberto Canessa, Andes plane crash survivor in 1972 and a most welcome guest at an online briefing organised today by South American duty free association ASUTIL.  Dr Canessa was just 19 years old at the time of the crash. The survivors, initially given up for dead, were found ten weeks afterwards. He, along with Fernando Parrado, managed to find help after a ten-day trek through treacherous conditions. The miraculous survival of the passengers became an even bigger sensation at the time when it was revealed that they had been forced to eat the flesh of the deceased victims to survive.

Talking about those who despair at the impact of COVID-19 on their lives, Canessa said: “We must have constructive attitudes. During this crisis you must try to build something, just like we did in the Andes and here, everyone has a different part to play. We saved ourselves because we were a team, we worked together. It’s incredible how humans adapt to circumstances. Darwin recognised that those who adapt fastest will survive.

“We must work harder to be brave and show solidarity. If you are going to die, die with your soul happy, doing what you could do.”

For more on his uplifting contribution to industry media and other guests, as well as the latest updates from ASUTIL, click here.

UK

British Airways owner IAG has said that passenger traffic demand is not likely to reach 2019 levels again for “several years”, meaning restructuring will be necessary. It revealed its latest outlook as it announced a -13% fall in Q1 revenue year-on-year. The operating result before exceptional items was a loss of €535 million compared to a profit of €135 million last year.

The company warned that 12,000 redundancies were possible at British Airways, with 22,626 employees furloughed in April.

IAG said: “The group expects its operating loss in the second quarter to be significantly worse than in the first quarter, given the substantial decline in passenger capacity and traffic and despite some relief on employee costs from government job retention and wage support schemes.”

International

COVID-19 has prompted all destinations worldwide to introduce travel restrictions and, so far, no country has lifted them, according to new research by the World Tourism Organisation (UNWTO).

The latest report from the United Nations agency for tourism shows 83% of the 217 destinations covered have had COVID-19-related restrictions in place already for four or more weeks.

Full story here.

Argentina

In a move that has attracted strong criticism from regional aviation bodies, Argentina’s National Civil Aviation Administration has announced plans to suspend all air traffic until 1 September.

It said that is considered it “reasonable” to keep restrictions imposed since March in place until that time, due to the impact of COVID-19. It said the airlines should not sell tickets for domestic or international flights for this period.

Full story here.

International

Travel analytics company ForwardKeys’ latest data underlines the extent of the collapse in air travel worldwide.

The picture for travel bookings by region, according to ForwardKeys (click to enlarge)

Analysis of year-to-date flight bookings shows that they are -86.8% down compared to the first 15 weeks of 2019. Bookings from Asia Pacific are down by more than -100%, which means that in the period, new bookings were outweighed by cancellations.

Bookings from Europe were down by -84.7%, from the Americas were down by -75.9% and from Africa & the Middle East were down by -71.4%. Throughout March, there were effectively no new bookings, as well as a wave of cancellations – and that pattern has continued into the first two weeks of April, said the analyst.

For more, click here.

Thailand

Having introduced a ban on international flights to Thailand that ran initially to 18 April, later extended until 30 April, the Civil Aviation Authority of Thailand today said the measure would remain in place until 31 May. The move was confirmed today in a statement by Airports of Thailand.

“This is to ensure continuity and effectiveness of precautionary measures against the COVID-19 outbreak,” said the Civil Aviation Authority.

France

TFWA said it has been reviewing all costs and activities in light of the COVID-19 crisis, and has decided to postpone the China’s Century Conference planned for 2021 until 2022.

TFWA President Alain Maingreaud said the move would ease the financial pressure on the association “as that event is a big investment for us and we are being cautious. So moving it by a year will limit the impact.”

Maingreaud said he remains positive about TFWA World Exhibition proceeding in late September, but acknowledged that “there are a number of uncertainties that we cannot control”.

Greater China

Another red-letter (and red-number) day across Greater China. No new cases in Hong Kong, Taiwan or Macau, and no deaths. No new cases nor deaths in Hubei province, whose capital Wuhan was the original epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak. Just six cases across Mainland China, three of them imported. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge).

International

COVID-19 case numbers race past 3 million with over 211,000 deaths. Tragically, New York City alone ranks fifth in the global death toll ranking. The latest global statistics are courtesy of Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to JHU’s constantly updated country-by-country count

South Korea

14 new cases were reported in South Korea yesterday, three through airport screening and four in the capital Seoul. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

Germany

Frankfurt Airport’s figures for the week 20-26 April underline the near total collapse of passenger traffic at this key German gateway. Repatriation of passengers is largely completed, the airport company said. There is a high demand for freight capacities while some airlines are using passenger airplanes as freighter-only aircraft.

27 April

International

Global scheduled airline capacity this week is up by +2% this week compared to last, signalling the first rise in almost ten weeks, according to flight analyst OAG. This week’s data include early May, which is a holiday in some markets (including China). Global seat capacity remains below 30 million (29.2 million), from over 105 million in mid-January.

From 1 May Wizzair will resume operations from some of its European bases, while Turkish Airlines will restart some domestic flights. In Asia most of the added capacity comes from Chinese carriers planning ahead for the Labour Day holiday, said OAG.

For more, click here.

France/Netherlands

In an important development for European aviation, Air France-KLM, one of the region’s major airline groups, has secured €7 billion in funding from the French government, with more to come from the Dutch state. The move, if approved by the EU Commission, will providing the airline group with the liquidity it needs to survive the COVID-19 crisis.

On 9 April the group said that the crisis would weigh heavily on EBITDA, and predicted that in the absence of additional funding, a cash injection would be necessary by the third quarter of 2020. The Air France-KLM Group, engaged in talks with the French and Dutch governments about aid measures to enable it to maintain solvency.

This support mechanism comprises:

  • A French state-backed loan of €4 billion granted by a syndicate of six banks to Air France-KLM and Air France. The French state is guaranteeing this loan up to 90%, and it has a maturity of 12 months, with two consecutive one-year extension options exercisable by Air France-KLM;
  • A direct shareholder’s loan of €3 billion from the French state to Air France-KLM with a maturity of four years, with two consecutive one-year extension options exercisable by Air France-KLM.

The Dutch state has also stated its intention to support the KLM Group. Discussions to finalise a plan for additional aid continue.

Greater China

Focus on the numbers in red from 26 April. They tell a remarkable story (see narrative below). Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge).

COMMENTARY

These are numbers above that should give us all cause for optimism – and reflection, writes Martin Moodie. No new cases in Hong Kong, Taiwan or Macau, and no deaths. No new cases nor deaths in Hubei province, whose capital Wuhan was the original epicentre of the COVID-19 outbreak. Just three cases across Mainland China, two of them imported. Now compare those figures with those of 20 February, less than ten weeks ago, which we have shown as a comparative baseline.

The statistics are important both in a global context – showing what can be done with a combination of strict government policy, strong leadership and civic responsibility – and in a travel retail one. China, or more specifically Chinese travel, is the key to any sector recovery. But for the Chinese to travel (and shop) in any significant numbers, China must first be considered ‘safe’, as must any destination favoured by Chinese consumers.

That is why Hainan, home to China’s hugely successful offshore duty free industry (and the acclaimed CDF Mall in Haitang Bay, the biggest travel retail door in the world for many beauty brands) is the first beneficiary. The island province has recorded just 168 cases, with 162 of the patients having recovered and just six deaths. On 24 March, several Chinese state media declared the island clear of COVID-19.

How Chinese state media reported the all-clear in Hainan late last month (Source: China.org)

After Hainan? It’s increasingly clear. Look to the impressive results from South Korea, where just 64 new cases have been recorded over the past seven days, an average of just over nine a day. The Republic was once the world’s second hardest-hit country and many feared the worst. But thanks to an outstanding medical system; strict government measures on infection tracking and social distancing; and – critically – great discipline by the people, the outbreak has been largely confined. Imported cases (five of yesterday’s ten new cases were identified by airport screening) are now the greatest concern.

But Seoul, the key destination for China’s daigou shoppers, has experienced just 629 cases (none yesterday) of the country’s total 10, 738, and only two deaths.

These are still early days, and a serious second wave remains possible in both South Korea and China, but given continued strict control in both countries – a certainty – then there is real grounds for optimism of a kick-start to the travel retail channel in the summer. South Korea is a known quantity to the Chinese. It is geographically adjacent; ‘China friendly’ (given the worrying Sinophobia that has emerged in many western countries during the crisis, this is likely to be an important consideration in the travel choice of many countries); and, not least, offers highly attractive duty free pricing.

South Korea

Just ten new case numbers for the third successive day in South Korea. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International

While the picture in China and South Korea gives cause for great optimism, the pandemic continues to rage in the west, particularly in the US. The latest global statistics are courtesy of Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to JHU’s constantly updated country-by-country count

26 April

South Korea

The kind of chart that so many countries would love to see. New case numbers remain very low in South Korea. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International

The latest global statistics are courtesy of Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to JHU’s constantly updated country-by-country count

Greater China

The encouraging pattern in Mainland China continues. Note the sustained zero death figures and the low new case numbers across the country. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge).

25 April

Greater China

A remarkable statistic: Only six new cases were reported across Mainland China on 23 April. Source: National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge).

A landmark story from Chinese state media Global Times, which has reported so openly, transparently (and, where necessary, critically) on the COVID-19 outbreak in China.

The title reports that the number of COVID-19 patients in critical condition fell to zero in Wuhan, capital of Central China’s Hubei Province – the original epicentre of the outbreak – after the last infected patient in the city completed treatment on Friday.

The milestone was announced at a press conference in the city on Friday by Mi Feng, a spokesperson for the National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China.

Mi confirmed that as of 24 April, no new confirmed or suspicious cases had been recorded in Hubei province over the past 20 days.

South Korea

The continuation of a remarkable pattern in the Republic sees just ten new cases out of South Korea (four identified through airport screening), marking just 65 in the last seven days. Remember, South Korea was once the second-worst hit country. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

International

The latest global statistics are courtesy of Johns Hopkins University (JHU). Click to enlarge and here for a safe link to JHU’s constantly updated country-by-country count

24 April

UK

London Gatwick Airport has said it expects post-COVID-19 passenger numbers to return to recent levels within 36 to 48 months. It outlined its updated action plan as it released its latest results.

Full story here.

France

Groupe ADP is forecasting a fall of -55-65% in passenger traffic year-on-year across its network from April to December, and a revenue hit of €2 billion to €2.5 billion in the same period.

The company updated the market on its latest assumptions as it revealed Q1 revenues to the end of March (see below). The figures above include traffic at the two major Paris airports, TAV Airports and Airport International Group (in Jordan).

As reported, at Paris Charles de Gaulle, since 30 March only terminals A, C, 2E Hall K and 2F are open for commercial flights. At Paris Orly, commercial traffic is temporarily suspended since 1 April. Only three airports operated by TAV Airports remain open to commercial flights, although only partially (Ankara, Antalya and Izmir). The other airports of the group, except Liège airport, are either closed or subject to restrictions.

For more on this story and on Q1 revenues at ADP, click here.

Japan

Chubu Centrair International Airport duty free sales fell by -11% year-on-year in the six months to 31 March, mainly as a result of the severe impact of COVID-19 on traffic and spend in the final two months.

Full story here.

South Korea

A deeply encouraging 9-week low of new cases in South Korea as the Republic maintains its impressive handling of the disease. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (Click to enlarge)

NOTE: For our updates pre-24 April click here.

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