We start each day’s update with this message from DFS Group when the retailer reopened its stores in Macau on 20 February after a 13-day closure.

Published in Chinese, it translates as:

No winter can’t be passed
No spring will not come

For updates before 12 August, click here.

12 September

Greater China

No local transmissions in China for the 27th day running and the situation in Hong Kong seemingly under control. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

International

Latest global figures on the pandemic from Johns Hopkins University, show that seven of the 11 worst-hit countries in total case terms are in the Americas. The situation in India grows more serious by the day with 97,570 new COVID-19 cases reported today. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

South Korea

11 September

Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Case numbers pick up again in the Republic, most in the Greater Seoul region. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

10 September

Greater China

International

While China and certain other Asia Pacific countries maintain their impressive curbing of the coronavirus, the global situation deteriorates with nearly 28 million cases recorded and over 906,000 deaths. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

South Korea

The Greater Seoul area remains of concern as the authorities step up their effort to get numbers down below 100. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

9 September

Greater China

New cases in Hong Kong are down to single figures, while just two new cases, a remarkable statistic, are reported on the Mainland. There have now been no locally transmitted cases on the Mainland since 15 August. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

International

The global death toll nears 900,000 out of over 27.4 million cases reported. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

Key developments:

Drug giant AstraZeneca has suspended a trial of its COVID-19 vaccine because of an unexplained illness suffered by one of the volunteers.
Earlier, AstraZeneca joined eight other companies in signing a pledge to not seek premature government approval for any vaccine.
Social gatherings of over six people will be illegal in England from next Monday amid a surge in new cases. The country has reported 8,396 new cases from Sunday, with 2,460 on Tuesday alone.

8 September

Greater China

New cases in Hong Kong remain low while the only infections reported on the Mainland are once again imported. No locally transmitted cases have been reported in Mainland China since 15 August. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

New cases remain under 200 for the sixth consecutive day but the COVID-19 fight is still complicated by cluster infections. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

7 September

Greater China

No locally transmitted cases have been reported in Mainland China since 15 August. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Just a low weekend count or a sign that the recent surge is coming under control? The latest Korean case numbers will be watched with intense interest in coming days. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

6 September

Greater China

South Korea

New cases remain well under 200 but it is far too early to curb recent controls, according to the Korean authorities. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

5 September

Greater China

A small (hopefully) new cluster emerges in Hong Kong but news from the Mainland continues to be good. There has been not a single such case since 15 August. The news from Hong Kong, too, is encouraging, with just eight cases reported. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge

International

Over 10,000 deaths worldwide since our last chart just two days ago. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

South Korea

Today’s chart shows the regional spread of cases and latest daily infections as 168 news cases are reported (a welcome drop from recent weeks), all but ten of them locally transmitted. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

4 September

Greater China

The impressive run continues as no new local transmissions are reported in Mainland China. There has been not a single such case since 15 August. The news from Hong Kong, too, is encouraging, with just eight cases reported. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Some progress in the Republic as new daily infections fall below 200. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

3 September

Greater China

China, the key source of travelling shoppers all around the globe, continues to lead the way in keeping COVID-19 under control as Hong Kong cases ease into single figures. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Click on the image to read The Korea Herald report on the country’s new daily COVID-19 cases falling below 200 for the first time in more than two weeks. Less positively, the number of patients in serious or critical condition hit a record 154 as of midnight Thursday, up 31 from a day earlier.

International

Another day, another grim milestone as COVID-19 cases pass 26 million globally with over 863,000 deaths. In the US the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has told public health officials to be prepared to distribute a potential vaccine by October. However, the Director of the National Institutes for Health, Dr. Francis Collins told CNN that the chances of that happening are “pretty low”. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

2 September

Greater China

Once more, no new daily local transmissions across Mainland China. Allied to the fact that four Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidates have started international phase-3 clinical trials (with some expected to complete the first round of vaccinations in early September and preliminary data expected as early as November), there is growing cause for optimism about an already resurgent China travel retail business. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Today’s chart shows the regional spread of cases and latest daily infections as a further 253 cases are reported, most of them locally transmitted. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

International

While several Asia Pacific countries battle successfully to curb the spread of COVID-19, the disease remains rampant in the US, Central and South America, Russia, India and many other nations. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

1 September

South Korea

222 of the 235 new cases were locally transmitted as the authorities continue to wage a nationwide battle against the coronavirus. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

Greater China

Into the third week running of no new daily local transmissions in the Mainland. Meanwhile four Chinese COVID-19 vaccine candidates have started international phase-3 clinical trials, according to the State Council joint prevention and control mechanism against COVID-19. Some of the phase-3 trials are expected to complete the first round of vaccinations in early September, with preliminary data expected as early as November. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

International

A new month begins and with it some more grim statistics. India has become the new global hotspot, with case numbers and death tolls now both ranking third-highest in the world. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country

31 August

Greater China

The latest numbers continue to offer considerable cause for optimism over prospects for duty free in China, with the Mainland yet again registering no locally transmitted cases and the recent outbreak in Hong Kong much eased. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

The latest figures show the lowest daily total for 13 days but it is still far too high to allow any confidence that the latest outbreak is easing. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

International

Over 25 million cases globally and nearly 850,000 deaths as the pandemic rages worldwide. India reported 78,761 new infections in 24 hours and posted more than 3.5 million cases, behind only the US and Brazil. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country

30 August

South Korea

Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

Greater China

29 August

Greater China

This simple table, which we have updated each day since early in the COVID-19 outbreak, helps to explain why China is leading the travel retail recovery. Just nine cases in Mainland China and only 13 in the recent hotspot of Hong Kong. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

International

France posted its highest number of new daily infections since March on Friday. Germany, Italy and Spain also saw surges. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country

South Korea

Greater Seoul continues to see worrying numbers of new cases, with 308 locally transmitted infections yesterday. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

28 August

Greater China

12 days and counting of no locally transmitted cases in Mainland China. Meanwhile the situation remains stable in Hong Kong. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

International

Latin American COVID-19 cases have passed 7 million while the US is heading fast towards 6 million cases and 181,000 deaths. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

South Korea

Can the Korean authorities get the latest sharp outbreak under control quickly? 371 new cases are reported, only 12 of them imported. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

27 August

Greater China

Just eight cases, all imported, across the whole of Mainland China. Remarkable numbers which underline why the country is also the first to witness a strong travel retail recovery. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

Yet another grim statistic as the global case toll races past 24 million and deaths exceed 825,000. India recorded over 75,000 new infections, the country’s highest one-day spike. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

26 August

Greater China

South Korea

Near 24 million cases, near 820,000 dead. The stark statistics that reflect a global pandemic. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

25 August

Greater China

Once more, no locally transmitted cases in Mainland China. More good news as Hong Kong cases dip into single figures. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

International

Well over 3,000 deaths globally since our report yesterday and almost 214,00 new cases. Colombia alone reported 10,549 new infections and is now the eighth-worst-hit country. Brazil, which has felt the terrible brunt of the disease, recorded 17,078 new cases. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

24 August

Greater China

No locally transmitted cases across the Mainland for seven days running, while the Hong Kong situation continues to ease. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (click to enlarge)

South Korea

The surge in locally transmitted cases in the Republic continues, most of them in the Greater Seoul area. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

International

The pandemic continues to rage with over 23 million cases reported and more than 800,000 deaths. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

23 August

Today we preface our usual statistical round-up globally and of the key China and South Korea travel retail markets with some comparitive analysis from six months ago, early in the COVID-19 crisis. The comparison is instructive in evaluating how different countries have been affected – and how they have responded – since. The numbers also help paint a picture of where the best prospects for travel retail recovery lie.

On 23 February, China recorded 409 new daily infections, 398 of them in the coronavirus epicentre of Hubei province. That day there were 150 deaths nationwide, all but one in Hubei. But those figures, though high, were already a sharp improvement on those of a week earlier (see table). Swift action by the authorities, a total lockdown of the Hubei capital of Wuhan, and a great sense of civic responsibility ever since have driven a remarkable turnaround across not just the Mainland but all of Greater China.

How things stood in China on 23 February as the country was mired in a health crisis. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

When new waves have emerged, such as those in Beijing, the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region and Hong Kong, they have been dealt with swiftly (the situation in Hong Kong, which saw a worrying spike over recent weeks, continues to improve rapidly).

Look at today’s numbers (below) reported by The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China. No locally transmitted cases across the Mainland for six days running. No cases in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region (there were 112 as recently as 30 July and the authorities were deeply concerned) and just 26 in Hong Kong. The Mainland authorities claim there has not been a COVID-19 death in four months.

Now look at similar comparisons from Johns Hopkins University in the US, which tracked the pandemic from early on. Our screengrab from 24 February shows that there had been 79,434 cases globally, of which 77,150 were in China with South Korea the next-worst affected nation. Italy was starting to be of concern with 157 cases. The US had posted just 35 cases and the UK just 13.

This heat map from 24 February shows the then-limited global impact of the coronavirus. Things would change fast. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge.

Roll on six awful months. The figures reveal a tale that few western politicians or media have told. The US now ranks number one in total case numbers and deaths with counts of 5,668,245 and 176,362, respectively. The UK ranks fifth in the death toll with 41,509 and 13^th in total infections with 326,595 (a position made to look moderately better by the recent surge in cases across Central and South America, India, Russia and South Africa).

Six months on and the numbers tell the terrible tale of a global pandemic. Today, China and South Korea do not even appear among the most-affected countries. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated case and death toll count by country.

China, in vivid contrast, now ranks a lowly 33^rd in case numbers (89,654) and 27^th in deaths (4,711), despite a population of 1.4 billion. South Korea comes in at 75^th and 76^th places, respectively, with 17,399 infections and 309 deaths.

These are important statistics from both a medical and also travel retail perspective. From relatively early on in this crisis it seemed likely that Chinese domestic travel would be one of the first sectors to recover, a factor of crucial industry importance given the existence of offshore duty free in Hainan province. And so it has proved, with a combination of enhanced allowances and categories, ecommerce and other business/consumer-friendly policies driving an extraordinary revival of the offshore business – currently travel retail’s only global hotspot of scale.

So where else do we look for pockets of growth in the relative near term? Given the importance of Chinese shoppers to travel retail, we should focus on where any outbound visitors will want to travel, where they will be allowed to travel, and (importantly in the longer term) where they will be welcomed. Last week the Singaporean government announced that for travellers from Macao and Mainland China the SHN (stay at home notice) will be shortened from 14 to seven days, effective 1 September. They will also be allowed to serve their SHN at their place of residence, and undergo a COVID-19 test at the end of (rather than during) their SHN.

The Straits Times reports on a further easing of travel restrictions. Could a green lane with China ease some of Changi Airport’s problems? Click on image to read full article.

While Singapore is still battling to eradicate its latest wave (it reported 87 new cases today, taking its total to 56,353), it seems likely to be among the earliest countries to benefit from greater Chinese outbound travel. Geographically, South Korea and Japan would be expected to join that group but both countries are witnessing worrying new waves.

Numbers keep climbing in South Korea, which for so long appeared to have the pandemic under control. Today it reported 397 new cases, 387 of them locally transmitted. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

New Zealand with its enviable performance throughout this pandemic could join that list, though its combination of geographic isolation and a government determination to keep the virus outside national shores means that any travel bubble with China is likely to be some way off.

Thailand and Vietnam, both hugely popular with Chinese travellers, will certainly be prime candidates for any early revival. Thailand has recorded an extraordinarily low 3,395 COVID-19 cases since the crisis began in January and just 58 deaths. But its government is taking an understandably ultra-cautious approach to opening its borders with most foreign nationals not allowed to enter the country until 31 August. What happens then will be critical to the fortunes of travel retail stakeholders through the balance of the annus horribilis that is 2020.

Bangkok Post reveals a handful of new cases but tough travel restrictions remain in place. Click on the image to read the full article.

And Vietnam? Like New Zealand and Thailand it had enjoyed a remarkably low infection rate until a recent surge. Even so, as of today Vietnam had confirmed just 1,014 cases of COVID-19 with 27 deaths. Since 22 March, the country’s borders have been closed to foreign travellers. Only Vietnamese nationals, foreigners on diplomatic or official business, and highly skilled workers are allowed to enter the country. Will the combination of both countries’ low infection rates and the sheer economic importance of allowing Chinese visitors into the country change that on a ‘bubble’ basis?

Business is modest but improving at T Galleria by DFS, Tsimshatsui East in Hong Kong (Photo: Martin Moodie, 22 August)

The Special Administrative Regions (SAR) of Macau and Hong Kong, Malaysia (9,267 cases) and Cambodia (just 273) are the other best prospects for increased Chinese travel outside the Mainland. The Macau authorities have controlled the virus effectively (only 46 cases, all cured), prompting the authorities to this month resume issuing visas under the Individual Visit Scheme (IVS), which has led to an imminent spike in visitor numbers. With the IVS scheme likely to be widened China-wide, travel retailers in the SAR are cautiously optimistic of a late-year flourish to brighten a difficult year.

Macau Daily Times reports an encouraging early response to the resumption of the IVS scheme. Click on image to read full article.

With many countries in Europe experiencing new waves (and the worry of a winter spike ahead); the US in turmoil; and much of Central and South America (Uruguay a notable exception) reeling, it’s clear that with the likely phased exceptions of certain Middle East, transit-driven locations such as the UAE and Qatar, travel retail’s best bets for near- and mid-term recovery lie intra-Asia.

22 August

Greater China

Three days in a row of no locally transmitted cases in Mainland China. And once again Hong Kong reports encouragingly low numbers of new infections. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

South Korea

International

The global case total nears 23 million and deaths from COVID-19 approach 800,000; Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

21 August

Greater China

More impressive statistics from the Mainland with no new locally transmitted cases for the second day running in a country of 1.34 billion people. The situation in Hong Kong improves further with just 18 new cases. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

International

India’s death and case tallies continue to rise fast, while the US and Brazil enjoy the unwanted status of topping both charts. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

South Korea

That is a very ugly number indeed from the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as 324 new cases are reported, 315 of them locally transmitted; Click to enlarge.

20 August

Greater China

Whichever way you look at it, these are extraordinary statistics with not a single new locally transmitted case in Mainland China and just seven imported cases. Chinese health officials say that no patients hospitalised due to COVID-19 in China have died in “almost four months”. The situation in Hong Kong continues to improve with just 26 new cases. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

South Korea

International

19 August

New Zealand

New Zealand online media Stuff reports six new cases countrywide. That’s right… six. Those infections bring the total number of cases linked to the recent Auckland community cluster to 75. That outbreak, first reported on 11 August, was described by US President Donald Trump on Monday as “terrible”.

“Even New Zealand, did you see what’s going on in New Zealand? They beat it, they beat it. It was like front page, they beat it, because they wanted to show me something,” Trump told media. “The problem is, big surge in New Zealand … it’s terrible. So you know, we don’t want that.”

New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern responded tersely, “I don’t think there’s any comparison between New Zealand’s current cluster and the tens of thousands of cases that are being seen daily in the United States.”

On the same day of Trump’s comments, the US reported tens of thousands of cases. As of today, the US has recorded 5,482,370 cases and 171,799 deaths – 24.85% and 22.04% of the global total, respectively. New Zealand has a death rate of just 4 people per million population and 330 cases per million, according to Worldometer. The US has a death rate of 529 per million people and 17,074 cases per million. Now that’s terrible.

South Korea

Grim news from the Republic as The Korea Herald reports 297 new COVID-19 cases, the largest daily increase since early March. Of the 283 locally transmitted cases, most were in the Greater Seoul area, 150 in Seoul and 94 in the surrounding Gyeonggi Province. Click on image to read the full article.

Greater China

International

Global case numbers pass 22 million and the death toll nears 780,000. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

18 August

Greater China

More good news from the Mainland where exactly 22 new cases were reported for the second consecutive day. The tough measures taken in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region to curb the recent spike appear to have worked. Hong Kong, hard hit of late, sees new infections below 50. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

South Korea

These are deeply worrying times again in the Republic. *The Korea Herald* reports that 246 more cases were reported this morning. Of the 235 locally transmitted cases, Seoul accounted for 131, while in nearby Gyeonggi Province and Incheon, 52 and 18 new cases were found, respectively. The tally of new cases has been in triple digits figures for five straight days. Click on image to read full story.

This chart breaks down locally transmitted cases (235) by area and also shows imported cases (11); Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

International

The pandemic surges on, with total case numbers now approaching 22 million and the death toll nearing 775,000. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

17 August

Greater China

The misery of February, when the COVID-19 crisis was raging in Wuhan, seems a long way off as Mainland China reports just 22 new cases, all imported. Encouragingly also, no new infections were reported in the Xinjiang Uygur autonomous region, scene of a recent alarming spike. Hong Kong remains the key concern, though numbers still sit well below 100. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

South Korea

International

Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

16 August

South Korea

The Korea Herald reports an alarming surge in infections, with the daily case tally passing 200 for the first time in five months, due mainly to a spike in infections in the greater Seoul area. Click on image to read full story.

Greater China

International

Global cases race past 21 million with over 770,000 deaths. Source: Johns Hopkins University. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

15 August

COVID-19 is on the rise again in South Korea with 166 new cases reported, 139 of them locally transmitted in Seoul or the surrounding province Gyeonggi. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

However, the situation in Greater China is much more encouraging, including in the recent hotspot of Hong Kong. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

14 August

South Korea

Big cause for concern in the Republic as 103 new cases are reported, 85 of them locally transmitted. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

Greater China

International

New Zealand

Auckland will remain in at lockdown level 3 for another 12 days, Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern has just announced at a press conference. There are 12 confirmed new cases of COVID-19 and one probable infection, she said. Prior to this week’s outbreak, the country had gone more than 100 days without a locally transmitted case.

13 August

Greater China

Just eight indigenous cases across Mainland China plus a further 11 imported. Hong Kong remains a concern though with a further 62 new cases reported. Source: The National Health Commission of the People’s Republic of China (Click to enlarge)

New Zealand

International

Latest numbers from Johns Hopkins University show that the US and Brazil account for over 36% of global fatalities. Click on image to enlarge and here for a constantly updated global and country by country infection and death toll.

South Korea

25 cases are reported in the capital, Seoul, over half of the 47 local transmissions. Source: Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; Click to enlarge.

12 August

New Zealand

The country is reeling from news of the first community transmissions in over 100 days. Auckland, New Zealand’s biggest city and site of the outbreak, has been placed back into maximum Level 3 lockdown for three days from midday today in an attempt to stop the spread. The rest of the country will also be put back into Level 2 for three days.

It was revealed late this afternoon that there are four new probable cases of community transmission linked to the four initial cases confirmed on Tuesday night.