CHINA/EUROPE. Chinese outbound travel to Europe declined -7.5% from mid-November 2015 to mid-October 2016, data from travel intelligence provider ForwardKeys has revealed.
The company’s analysis showed that although bookings were down over the period, travel patterns fluctuated considerably by destination.
Chinese travel to what ForwardKeys calls the “Croissant Countries”, as shown by the image below, were impacted strongly as a result of the terror attacks in France.
The neighbouring Benelux states, Germany and Italy also lost Chinese visitors over the period as they are included in many Chinese tour itineraries, FowardKeys said.
Milan and Paris were the worst-affected cities, with bookings from China down -25.3% and -23.5% respectively year-on-year. They were followed by Venice and Rome, down -17.7% and -16.8% respectively, and Frankfurt and Zurich, which were both down by -11.2%.
However, Spain, the UK and northern Europe saw increases in the number of Chinese visitors. Barcelona and Helsinki were up by +10.9% and +8.6% respectively. Madrid rose +8.5%, Vienna by +5.7%, and Copenhagen by +5.5%.
The UK saw notable increases, assisted by a favourable exchange rate. London was up +7.8% and Manchester +26.8%, the latter benefitting from new air routes, ForwardKeys said.
Asia Pacific travel to Europe was also analysed. Istanbul and Paris were the worst-affected cities during the period, with bookings down by -27.0% and -24.4% respectively. They were followed by Milan, down -17.0%, Venice -12.0%, and Rome -11.0%.
The perceived “safe” cities showed opposing fortunes, ForwardKeys said. Moscow saw the biggest increase during the period, up +23.0% on last year. This was a result of new-found popularity with Chinese visitors due to favourable exchange rates and diminished enthusiasm for France.
Other cities with notable year-on-year increases were Dublin (+15.0%), Copenhagen (+14.0%), Helsinki (+13.1%), and Stockholm (+12.0%).
Impact of terrorism
ForwardKeys said booking patterns showed the substantial impact of terrorism on Asia Pacific travel to France.
After the Paris attacks on 13 November 2015 until the end of the year, bookings to France slumped -78.2%. After the Brussels airport attack in March, bookings dropped by -29.4%, and after the Bastille Day truck attack in Nice, they fell -21.1%.
France experienced an unprecedented decline in arrivals from Asia Pacific, which were down -17% year-to-date, ForwardKeys said.
France visits by country of origin
ForwardKeys data also showed the biggest passenger declines to France were from Malaysia and Japan, with bookings down -52.9% and -50.9% respectively.
The country with the largest share of passengers to France remains China, at 21.6%, where volumes fell -23.4% year-on-year.
India, a large source market for France, saw a modest bookings decline of -2.3%, ForwardKeys stated.
The substantial increase in bookings from Iran (+17%) reflects the lifting of sanctions, the company added.
Analysis of future bookings to France from the Asia Pacific region revealed that in the period through to the end of 2016, bookings were running -21.0% behind where they were at the equivalent moment last year, ForwardKeys concluded.
