Chinese overseas tourism outside Greater China rises +14% in first half

CHINA. Chinese outbound tourism grew by +7.4% in the first half of 2017 to almost 69 million, according to the latest China Outbound Tourism Research Institute (COTRI) statistics.

However, COTRI said that if the slow growth of just +1% year-on-year to Greater China (Hong Kong, Macau, Taiwan) is stripped out, the rest of the world saw a sharp +14% rise in Chinese visitors compared with the same period in 2016.

While the COTRI and CNTA numbers vary, their respective findings both point to modest rises in outbound tourism during the first half. However, once Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan, which all suffered from slow growth, are stripped out the picture changes markedly. Source: China Outbound Tourism Research Institute
Chinese tourists shop hard in a Regstaer duty free shop at Moscow Sheremetyevo Airport in Moscow (Picture: Martin Moodie)

A question of methodology

COTRI Founder Professor Wolfgang Georg Arlt, writing in COTRI Weekly, noted that recording Chinese tourism statistics is a difficult science.

“If international arrivals are counted according to nationality, everybody is included, regardless of whether that person came from their home country for a trip or not,” he wrote. “If you count according to residence, foreigners living in a third country, for instance a British expat working in China, will be included in arrival statistics.

“In many cases, the definition of ‘residence’ will also differ. Most national tourism statistics are based on hotel registrations, leaving out private arrangements, small lodging providers and, in recent years, Airbnb and similar services. Surveys at ports of entry have a tendency to under-report visitors with perceived language difficulties or a reluctance to stop for an interview. Multi-national visas, such as the Schengen visa in Europe, and multiple-entry visas make it difficult to use visa applications as an indicator.

“In China, there is also the additional problem of changes in the publication of travel statistics. In November 2014, the China National Tourism Administration (CNTA) stopped publishing – at least internally – monthly data for border crossings, changing instead to quarterly results. This changed again in 2016, since when data on outbound travel has only been provided on a half-yearly basis.”

He noted that the CNTA’s means of calculating which trips are included has changed in recent years, though the new definition has not been published. “The result however is clear: outbound numbers from China are counted in a way meaning they are lower than they would have been under the previous method, ensuring that the official number of persons travelling into China and their expenditure figures are higher than the corresponding outbound numbers.”

As a result, he said, in 2016 even the World Tourism Organization (UNWTO) stopped using CNTA numbers and now is relying other Chinese sources. COTRI began to generate its own figures in 2015, based on reports from host sources.

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