ASIA PACIFIC. Analyst Air4casts has updated its third quarter passenger traffic projections for Asia Pacific – and is now expecting a +9.9% increase.
Domestic growth will be much greater than international traffic growth. The analyst noted that the size of the domestic market was more than double that of the international market.
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Air4casts said it expected the +8.8% growth rate in international traffic for the quarter to hold into the final quarter of the year.
But it noted that the exceptions to high growth were “especially relevant” in the short-term. “Hong Kong has experienced three poor performance months so far this year and the forecast now reflects the recent reality,” Air4casts said. “Taiwan, of course, is driven by the preferences of Chinese visitors which for the moment have changed. Singapore, historically one of the more erratic hubs, is now displaying more consistency, but at a lower level.”
The top 10 growth performers (see chart below) underline the potential of the region, according to Air4casts, even though only two countries in this grouping also appear in the top 10 size ranking.
Looking ahead to the fourth quarter, Air4casts is predicting +9.8% overall growth. It expects a +10.2% increase in domestic traffic, and a +8.9% increase in international traffic.
Air4casts also expects that level of growth to continue in the first quarter of 2019, but after that there will be some regional fluctuations. South Korea should continue its international acceleration, Air4casts said, while Japan will hold its 2018 rate of increase.
China may ease a little, according to the analyst, “and if it does the difference will be no more than three quarters of a point”. Taiwan is likely to improve and India is expected dip to around 8% points.
