EUROPE. New research from ForwardKeys reveals that air travel to European destinations in July and August reached 39.9% of pre-pandemic levels. This is an improvement on the comparable period last year (26.6% of 2019 levels), when the COVID-19 pandemic caused widespread lockdowns and vaccines were not yet approved. The travel data analyst noted that the outlook “is not improving, as bookings slowed towards the end of the Summer period”.
This Summer, Greece was the stand-out performer, achieving 86% of July and August 2019 bookings. This was followed by Cyprus at 64.5%, Turkey 62% and Iceland 61.8%. ForwardKeys noted that Greece and Iceland were among the first countries to announce that they would accept visitors who had been fully vaccinated, could show a negative PCR test or could show proof of recovering from COVID-19.
The countries that fared worst in Europe over the Summer were those that rely more on long-haul tourism, such as France and Italy, and those that imposed the most “onerous and volatile” travel restrictions such as the UK, which achieved just 14.3% of 2019 arrivals in July and August.
Excluding low-cost carriers, intra-European flights made up 71.4% of arrivals, compared with 57.1% in 2019.
The sharp fall in long-haul visitors, who typically stay longer, spend more and focus their attention on cities and sightseeing, was underlined in rankings of the best and worst performing local destinations.
London was at the bottom of the list of busiest European cities, achieving just 14.2% of 2019 arrivals. This list was headed by Palma Mallorca, which reached 71.5% of 2019 levels and Athens at 70.2%. The next best performing major cities were Istanbul at 56.5%, Lisbon 43.5%, Madrid 42.4%, Paris 31.2%, Barcelona 31.1%, Amsterdam 30.7% and Rome 24.2%.
By comparison, leisure destinations proved more resilient. A ranking of all major local destinations (those with a market share over 1%) was dominated by traditional seaside resorts or the gateway to them. The leaders were Heraklion and Antalya, which exceeded pre-pandemic levels by 5.8% and 0.5% respectively. They were followed by Thessaloniki, 98.3%; Ibiza, 91.8%; Larnaca, 73.7% and Palma Mallorca, 72.5% (see table).
Some destinations fared relatively better or worse as rules changed in their major source markets. Portugal, a favoured destination of UK holidaymakers, suffered when the UK changed its designation from green to amber in June. Travel to Spain was hit at the end of July when Germany warned against all but essential travel.
ForwardKeys VP Insights Olivier Ponti commented: “When one considers how dreadful things were for tourism in Europe last year, this Summer has been a very modest recovery story. Benchmarked against normal times, the continued low intensity of international air travel, less than 40% of normal, has been extremely damaging for the aviation industry. The continued absence of long-haul travellers, particularly from the Far East (it reached just 2.5% of pre-pandemic volumes this summer) will prove a severe blow to the visitor economy of several European countries.”
Ponti concluded: “If there is an element of consolation, it is people ‘staycationing’, ie: taking a holiday in their own country. While domestic aviation has a minority share of the market in Europe in normal times, it has held up much better during the pandemic because it has not been subject to such challenging travel restrictions. For example, the Canaries and the Balearics welcomed more Spanish visitors than they do in a normal season.”
