EUROPE. ACI Europe has updated its forecast for the performance of European air passenger traffic for 2021 after assessing the numbers in the year-to-date to 18 October. It is now predicting a -60% result for this full year and -32% in 2022 compared to pre-pandemic (2019) volumes.
Meanwhile, the trade body has stated its belief that a full recovery will not be achieved before 2025, with its current forecast for that year now standing at +1% against 2019.
ACI Europe said that its prediction of a much-improved picture next year is fuelled by the reopening of the transatlantic market to European travellers as well as a progressive easing of travel restrictions in other long-haul markets, in particular in Asia.
“Fully restoring unconstrained global travel remains a long way off and looks set to be an uneven and volatile process – conditioned by further progress on vaccination and the evolution of the epidemiological situation” – ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec
It also revealed that the continent’s airports have lost 1.26 billion passengers so far this year, a fall of -62% compared to 2019 levels.
ACI Europe observed that Europe is currently experiencing a “strikingly two-speed aviation market”. EU+ airports (EU, EEA, Switzerland and the UK) stand at -69% so far this year against 2019, with overall passenger volumes essentially flat compared to last year.
The peak Summer months (Q3) saw a significant improvement at EU+ airports of -50% compared to 2019, as travel restrictions eased and the EU Digital Covid Certificate enabled cross-border travel.
ACI Europe noted that airports in the UK (-71%), Ireland (-68%) and Finland (-78%) underperformed in Q3 due to a much slower easing of travel restrictions by their respective governments.
Meanwhile, airports in the rest of Europe have achieved a significant recovery at -34% so far this year against 2019, with passenger volumes up +70% compared to 2020. Q3 stood at -21%, driven by continued improvement at Russian and Turkish airports.
ACI Europe said that the pace of the recovery has not yet accelerated across the European airport network, with the first two weeks of October at -41% compared to -43% in September and -41% in August.
ACI Europe Director General Olivier Jankovec said: “Fully restoring unconstrained global travel remains a long way off and looks set to be an uneven and volatile process – conditioned by further progress on vaccination and the evolution of the epidemiological situation.
“The level of pent-up demand is staggering, fuelled by the savings accumulated by consumers through this pandemic. But there are also significant supply pressures that will slow down the pace of the recovery.
“These include structurally downsized airlines with significant reductions in their aircraft fleet and workforce, rising fuel costs and inflationary pressures, the lasting impact of airport slot waivers and the fact that capacity disciplined airlines will be exercising pricing power.”
Connectivity issues
ACI Europe has also released its 2021 Airport Industry Connectivity Report today, which reveals air connectivity levels are still markedly degraded. It shows that while direct connectivity out of Europe’s airports now stands at -36% compared to pre-pandemic levels, hub connectivity is still down by -67% due to most intercontinental markets remaining subject to tight travel restrictions.
As with passenger traffic, EU+ airports underperform the European average for both indicators. Their direct connectivity stands at -39% and hub connectivity at -71%, while airports in the rest of Europe have achieved -20% and -51% respectively.
Meanwhile, the top 20 global hub connectivity league from the report shows that unlike European airports, US airports have recovered the bulk of their 2019 hub connectivity. ACI Europe observed that this is thanks to their reliance on a vast and unconstrained domestic market.
Dallas Fort Worth and Denver are leading the global ranking this year, having recovered respectively 69% and 90% of their hub connectivity. They are followed by Frankfurt, Atlanta and Amsterdam Airport Schiphol.
Hamad International Airport stands in 11th position, making it the only Middle East airport in the top 20.
Jankovec said: “This year’s report shows that as we are learning to live with the virus and economies have reopened, air connectivity is taking time to come back. Its recovery is far from uniform, with significant differences between the lead indexes as well as between geographical markets and segments within the airport industry.
“This largely reflects the permanence of travel restrictions and bans on external markets and still not fully aligned travel regimes within Europe.”
He added: “Looking ahead, there is no doubt that governments’ support to air connectivity and aviation in general will be a defining factor. Restoring air connectivity must go hand in hand with it becoming more sustainable and also more integrated with other transport modes and urban mobility.
“But there is also no escaping the fact that with no comparable substitute, air connectivity must remain an essential part of the productive capacity of our societies. With every +10% in direct connectivity yielding +0.5% in GDP per capita, that’s not something we can turn our backs on.”
