No thud from THAAD yet but Korean travel retailers remain wary of Chinese backlash

SOUTH KOREA. Chinese visitor numbers boomed in July, helping to drive all-time monthly record duty free sales.

Travel retailers have been anxiously monitoring tourism figures, fearful that South Korea’s introduction of the US-developed advanced anti-missile defence system THAAD will lead to a downturn in tourism from China, which has been angered by the development.

While there have been widespread reports of cancelled Chinese tours, any fall-out is only likely to show up in numbers from August onwards. For now, though, the figures make for happy reading. According to new Korea Tourism Organization statistics, Chinese arrivals rose +258.9% year-on-year in July to 917,519. However, that comparison is heavily distorted by the fact that July 2015 was the height of the MERS crisis, which devastated Korean tourism, especially from China.

Compared to the more relevant benchmark of July 2014, which saw a record for the month of 692,053 Chinese arrivals, July 2016’s total was up +32.58% – still a very strong increase.

No longer down, down, down but up, up and away: What a difference a year makes in duty free. Chinese arrivals and travel retail purchases in South Korea are booming. [Pictured: The Shilla Duty Free]

According to Korean reports, that visitor influx drove all-time monthly high duty free sales in July. Citing Korea Duty Free Association data, Korean Bizwire said that the month’s sales nationwide reached US$954 million, up +4.1% over a record June. That was the highest monthly result since the association began compiling data in January 2009, the report said. The July figure was up by +107% year-on-year over the MERS-ruined comparative period.

Japanese arrivals rose +127.8% year-on-year last month but, again, the comparison with July 2014 is more instructive, with this year’s number up by a more modest but still encouraging +7.98%.

For the period to 31 July, Chinese arrivals rose +45.4% year-on-year to 4,734,275 (and +40.83% 2016 v 2014).

KTO visitor gender accum July 2016
Accumulative visitor arrivals by gender for the first seven months of 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
KTO visitor gender month July 2016
Visitor arrivals by gender for July 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
KTO visitor purpose accum July 2016
Accumulative visitor arrivals by purpose and nationality for the first seven months of 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
KTO visitor purpose month July 2016
Visitor arrivals by purpose and nationality for July 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
KTO departure age month July 2016
Outbound departures of Korean nationals by age for the first seven months of 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
KTO departure gender month July 2016
Outbound departures of Korean nationals by gender for the first seven months of 2016; Source: Korea Tourism Organization

HOW LAST YEAR LOOKED….

Visitor arrivals by purpose and nationality for July 2015. Source: Korea Tourism Organization
Some consolation: Outbound travel by Koreans stayed strong through the worst weeks of the MERS crisis
Outbound travel by Koreans by age January-July 2015
From year-on-year growth in Chinese visitors of +28.2% for the first five months of 2015, by July the year-to-date trend moved into negative territory as MERS took its toll
Accumulative figures for January-July 2015
Down, down, down: A tale of tourism woe in July 2015; Source: Korea Tourism Organization
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